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Week 17 is here and PFF’s analysts have laid out their favorite bets of the week, powered by the PFF Player Prop Tool.
The tool provides real-time projections, matchup data, hit percentages, and the best available odds, all in one place. It’s the same level of insight that all 32 NFL teams rely on, now at your fingertips.
Here are our analysts’ favorite bets for Week 17’s Sunday list. Their picks have gone 46-46-4 through 16 weeks.
Trevor Sikkema (9-7)
QB Quinn Ewers, Miami Dolphins: Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-220 bet MGM)
The Buccaneers defense has struggled, posting a PFF coverage grade of 38.0 since Week 12, but Todd Bowles’ defense can give young quarterbacks problems with how, when and where they pressure and drop defenders into coverage. While the Dolphins’ speed creates a favorable matchup offensively, I like the under on Ewers throwing two touchdowns as he has yet to throw one in 2025.
Dalton Wasserman (8-8)
QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: Over 225.5 passing yards (-120 Fanatics)
Lawrence has been the NFL’s most popular quarterback over the past month, eclipsing that total in each of his past five games. That includes a 244-yard performance against this week’s opponent, the Indianapolis Colts, just three weeks ago. The Colts’ pass defense has collapsed in recent weeks due to injuries and poor performances, making it reasonable to expect Lawrence to stay hot in Week 17.
Ben Linsey (11-5)
TE Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals: Over 6.5 receptions (-130 BetMGM)
McBride has seen more targets this season than any player in the NFL except Ja’Marr Chase and has seven or more receptions in seven of his past 10 games. He’s now playing an elite game against Cincinnati, the only defense in the NFL to have allowed more than 100 receptions to opponents this season, in a game with a total of 52.5 points. The place is well prepared for a big McBride performance.
Mason Cameron (5-10-1)
QB Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears: Over 220.5 passing yards (-110 Fanatics)
After adding the highest rated throw of the 2025 NFL season on his resume, the sky seems to be the limit for Caleb Williams and this Bears offense. With the 49ers up next, Ben Johnson vs. Kyle Shanahan to develop into an offensive showcase between two of the game’s best playcallers, creating ideal conditions for a shootout, with the game total currently at 52.5 points.
Williams should have a big advantage over the 49ers’ zone-heavy coverage scheme. His 17 big throws against zone coverage rank fourth in the NFL, a remarkable mark considering San Francisco’s coverage unit allowed just 277 passing yards to 44-year-old Philip Rivers, fueled by seven receptions of 15 or more yards.
Max Chadwick (7-7-2)
WR DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles: over 4.5 receptions (+148 FanDuel)
This prop currently has a 52.7% chance of hitting with a 30.6% lead in our system. Smith has reached that number in three of his past five games and is averaging 4.8 receptions per game this season. The Bills’ secondary was average overall, ranking 17th in the league with a team coverage grade of 57.1. At odds of almost +150, this stands out as one of the best bets on the board this week.
Gordon McGuinness (6-9-1)
QB Chris Oladokun, Kansas City Chiefs: Over 147.5 passing yards (-115 BetMGM)
Betting overs on a third-string quarterback is risky, and five quarterbacks have played full games against the Denver Broncos and fallen under this total. However, it’s worth noting that Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs threw for 276 yards against Denver earlier this season. Kansas City will game plan for Chris Oladokun this week, which should involve a heavy dose of short passing and relying on yards after the catch, and in a game where the Chiefs will likely be chasing, there should be plenty of opportunity for him to put away such a low number.
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