Peter, out: Orioles sweep Alonso from Mets

After a sleepwalking first day of the Winter Meetings, one of the most talked-about rumors centered on the free agent first baseman Pete Alonso get into his car, driving down I-4 from his home in Tampa to Orlandoand personally pitching himself to the Red Sox and Orioles.

Apparently those meetings went well. The drive from New York to Baltimore is largely on expensive toll roads, but Alonso now has an extra $155 million in his EZ Pass account. Big Pete, the polar bear, the face of the Mets franchise, is headed to Baltimore on a five-year contract.

It’s not at all shocking that Alonso signed shortly afterwards Kyle Schwarber again with the Phillies. Schwarber’s deal created the market for the paternal power-over-all-other NL East DH type guy. And it also took the Phillies (as well as the Reds and Pirates, who were apparently interested in Schwarber and only Schwarber) out of the market for a mediocre bat.

The AthleticsKen Rosenthal reported this the Orioles had offered to match Schwarber’s five-year, $150 million deal; at the time, this struck me as a carefully calculated “we tried” effort. It was unlikely that Schwarber would move all his stuff to take the same money from a worse team where he isn’t the undisputed leader of the clubhouse. At the same time, the Orioles’ big sin under Mike Elias has been operating as if it’s more important to be smart than successful; Dumping a huge bag of money into the lap of an aging DH – 56-homer season or not – didn’t seem like Elias’ style.

Surprises, it turns out, can be fun.

Alonso isn’t quite in Schwarber’s class as a hitter; after his rookie campaign of 53 home runs, the former Florida Gator reached the top with 46 dingers in 2023. Alonso’s .524 SLG – his highest mark since that rookie year – ranked 12th in the majors, one point ahead of Michael Busch. His career-high 10.4% walk rate, posted in 2019, would have been Schwarber’s career lowest.

But Alonso is roughly two years younger than Schwarber, which is significant when you’re talking about five-year contracts for players in their 30s. And he was absolutely amazing in his walking year.

In 2024, Alonso returned to the Mets on a two-year contract with an opt-out, after abandoning his search for a longer-term contract. And he did more than just run it in 2025; he became more aggressive within the strike zone, strengthened his weakness against sliders, posted career-best contact numbers and had a .272 batting average and a 141 wRC+.

The Orioles have only had three offensive seasons this good in the last 20 years: two through Chris Davis in the 2010s, and one through Gunnar Henderson in 2024.

Alonso is clearly an upgrade at first base or DH for almost everyone, and for the Orioles, who traded Ryan O’Hearn on the deadline are not among the exceptions. Combined with the Taylor district The signing of Alonso earlier this season brings balance to a Baltimore lineup that was a bit left-heavy, with Henderson and Jackson vacation at the top of the order, and Colton Cowser And Samuel Basallo appear later.

And like the Corbin Burnes trade before the 2024 season, it’s a sign that Elias and his boss, David Rubenstein, are willing to go outside the homegrown talent pool to find pieces that will put Baltimore over the top. Even if they cost a lot.

Because this is a lot of money for Alonso. Ben Clemens had Alonso booked for four years and $120 million; our crowdsource estimate averaged four years and $107 million. ZiPS was a little more conservative, suggesting a total value of $110 million for a five-year contract.

I’ll come out and say two things that our readers probably already know: First, Alonso is very good now and will improve the Orioles quite a bit in the short term. And – as strange as this may seem, given how long Baltimore has been the next hot thing – the Orioles’ window won’t stay open forever. They only have two seasons of team control left Adley Rutschmanand only three more on Gunnar Henderson and Kyle Bradish; that corresponds to the remaining years of Alonso’s prime.

Which leads to the second thing you probably already know: big power players like Alonso don’t always age well, and sometimes, when the time comes, it happens all at once. Orioles fans who have seen the back end of Davis’ career know this better than most.

But I think we’ll cross that bridge when we get there.

The Orioles have some work to do; their rotation is pretty weak for a team with championship aspirations, and the AL East isn’t the kind of division that lends itself to someone who can take first place by going 88-74. This division features the last two AL pennant winners, the Blue Jays and the Yankees, a Red Sox team that is rearming for another playoff run, and a Rays team that sometimes comes out of nowhere to win 92 games with a lineup of guys you’ve never heard of. If the Orioles want to compete, they need to be good, not just lucky. Alonso is a good stepping stone, but he can’t throw 150 league-average innings.

As simple as the picture is for Alonso’s new team, his old club, the Mets, is in a bit of trouble.

I’ll start by saying this, as someone who doesn’t need too much provocation to make fun of the Mets. (I saw Mr. Met fall off the stage about 500 times during the Lumineers concert.) But letting Alonso walk isn’t a ‘Lol, Mets’ moment for me, even a day later Edwin Diaz left for the Dodgers without much financial provocation.

This is a 31-year-old righty first baseman – actually a DH – who would conflict defensively with Juan Soto sooner rather than later. On those grounds alone, I get a front office that won’t commit for five years and spend $155 million. Even a front office funded by Steve Cohen.

And as popular as Alonso is, and as many jerseys and bobbleheads he’s sold over the past seven seasons, his status as a franchise icon shouldn’t automatically force him to a new contract. During Alonso’s tenure, the Mets have made the playoffs just twice in seven seasons, advancing past the Division Series just once. In 2025, they had a $340 million payroll, folded, won just 83 games and missed the playoffs.

I’m not saying it’s Alonso’s fault. Just that the era of Mets baseball he has come to define has not been particularly successful. That’s why I wouldn’t move heaven and earth to keep him around the franchise legend.

But here’s the eternal question when a team — especially a team with money — lets a key player walk: What are you going to do with the savings?

The example I keep coming back to is the Washington Nationals, who allowed that to happen Bryce Harper run after the 2018 season and then used the freed up money to sign Patrick Korbin. Say what you want about the last five years of that contract, but they won’t win the World Series in 2019 without Corbin.

So what do the Mets do with the money they don’t pay Alonso and Díaz?

Well, they signed Devin Williamswhich is great. They have also traded away older supporting players by moving Brandon Nimmo for Marcus Semien. That helps the team defensively, but it is explicitly a lateral move. And remember: the world’s most expensive team with 83 wins can’t afford lateral moves; it has to get better.

As it stands, RosterResource projects some dire possibilities: Cleaner Mark Wind and designated hitter Ronny Mauricio. And the pitching staff won’t save that shallow lineup. The only way to talk yourself into the idea of ​​the Mets having one top-five pitcher in the division is to combine a very optimistic view of the situation. Nolan McLean with a very pessimistic view Zack Wieler And Spencer Schellenbach’s injury recovery.

Now it is still early in the low season. The Mets have lost two of our top 10 free agents, but six of the other eight are still around. As surprising as it is to see Alonso leave, it would be much more shocking if the Mets entered Spring Training without at least one major addition. This team is best viewed as incomplete, rather than troubled.

But after losing two key players in two days, the Mets will be under pressure to complete their vision. They may be better off without Alonso, but we won’t know until they appoint a replacement.