MELBOURNE, Australia – Jessica Pegula’s Australian Open campaign through the first three rounds was built on unparalleled composure and smart tennis. On Monday she added something else: a statement.
The world number 6 not only defeated defending champion and close friend Madison Keys at Rod Laver Arena, she completely dismantled her game with intelligence and discipline, showing a level of tactical knowledge that feels just like a player ready to win a Grand Slam.
The 31-year-old advanced to the quarter-finals with a 6-3, 6-4 victory over ninth-seeded Keys, extending her flawless run – and she has yet to drop a set.
This was already the most intriguing match of the day. It was set up as a clash between Keys’ explosive, powerful shot and Pegula’s efficiency. What unfolded was, well, that, but also something more telling. It was a lesson in how to counter an opponent’s strengths with form, variety and pressure.
“[I’m] I’m happy with the way I was able to serve. I think I have to execute my strategy on some very important points,” Pegula said after the match.
“I saw, hit, moved, I feel really good all tournament, and to be able to keep that up against such a great player like Madi and defending champion would be a lot more difficult today, but I think I was still able to do that very well.”
From the opening games of the first set, Pegula’s intention was clear. She was always on the front foot, stepping forward on Keys’ serve to break early, and had service games with impeccable placement to constantly force movement into her opponent, rather than allowing Keys to plant herself and gain the upper hand in points with aggressive returns.
Wide serves, angled groundstrokes, looping forehands, slice and then a flat stroke across the court. Everything that prevented the 2025 winner from finding rhythm, Pegula did.
Of course, Keys still provided the spectacular. There were big serves and moments of brilliance, including some big backhand winners in the line that reminded everyone why her ceiling remains as high as anyone else’s on tour – and Pegula needing to stay consistent and not lower her level or the threat of a Keys comeback would always be there.
But the problem for Keys was her own consistency. Too often she ended a point with a winner, or Pegula’s variety and depth forced an error.
The numbers told the story in a very brutal way.
After 10 games, in which Pegula held a 6-3, 1-0 lead, Keys had hit 14 winners, but also 20 unforced errors. Pegula? Five and five. By the end of the match, Keys finished with a whopping 26 winners, but 28 unforced errors. Pegula? Twelve and 13.
It was risky, powerful, ball-solid tennis clashing with stable, high-IQ play, and the latter was what prevailed.
The second set followed much the same pattern, with Pegula holding a slight lead throughout. It was a physical advantage, but also a psychological advantage. She continued to absorb the Keys serve, she didn’t blink, she forced the extra balls, hit the corners and her performance under fourth round pressure was tremendous.
Even on serve, where it could be argued that Pegula could be somewhat vulnerable, there was a clear contrast. Only one double fault compared to six.
“It was very important to focus on my serve,” Pegula said. “It was really tough on that one side serving in the sun. I lost that match. And I was like, you know what… she hit some good shots, whatever. Just don’t think about it so much.
“I really had to stay focused. I think I just have to keep my feet moving and keep my body weight forward. Sometimes when you get a little nervous or you’re playing really well, sometimes you just relax, and it’s hard to do that against someone like Madi, who can turn games around very quickly by hitting some big forehands and winners, and all of a sudden she hits a couple of good serves, and it’s been a while.”
There was so much extra interest in this matchup. The two co-host the podcast “The Player’s Box” and are good friends. It was the first women’s Australian Open match between the top 10 seeded Americans since Serena Williams and Lindsay Davenport played in the 2005 final.
Pegula now moves into the quarter-finals and is playing incredibly efficient tennis that can unravel most rivals. No sets were dropped and only 17 games were lost.
For years her consistency had been admired, and rightly so, but the critics had often labeled her the great regular quarterfinalist. Maybe that’s fair: she didn’t break that phase of a Slam until 2024.
She arrived in Melbourne still chasing that big title and those same questions still lingered. When will she finally break through? When will she finally claim the ultimate? Is she “too consistent”? Are there enough weapons? Is she great without being a champion?
For Pegula, these are all outside noises that she doesn’t think about.
“I felt like if I make a quarter of a Slam, that’s pretty good,” she said. “So I never really understood the negativity around it, or I just think the headline of, you know, how does she get past the quarters?
“I mean, the fact that I put myself in as many positions as I think is an achievement in itself. … [At the] US Open, I [made] reached finals, semi-finals, and that felt normal. So for me it doesn’t really feel that different. I think maybe even now I feel more comfortable knowing that I’ve progressed, it doesn’t feel, I don’t know, as important to be in the quarters.
It’s performances like this, against the defending champions no less, that provide the best possible counterargument. It’s performances like these that also suggest that a breakthrough may not be coming, but it may already be in play. And maybe it’s time to change the narratives.
Pegula’s task doesn’t get any easier as she faces No. 4 seed Amanda Anisimova in the quarterfinals. Although Pegula is 3-0 against her, this will be the first time they play at Grand Slam level.
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