Paris Choices and Predictions: Sinner vs. Cerundolo, Fritz vs. Bublik

Paris Choices and Predictions: Sinner vs. Cerundolo, Fritz vs. Bublik


No. 2 seed and title favorite Jannik Sinner will continue his Paris Masters campaign when he faces Francisco Cerundolo on Thursday. Taylor Fritz and Alexander Bublik also headline the third round.

Francisco Cerundlolo vs. (2) Jannik Sinner
Thanks to the immediate departure of Carlos Alcaraz from the Rolex Paris Masters, Sinner returns to number 1 in the world on Sunday with a title. The second-ranked Italian is now a huge favorite, having not lost to anyone other than Alcaraz through anything other than retirement since Halle (Alexander Bublik) in mid-June. Including the Six Kings Slam exhibition, Sinner is 14-1 with titles in Beijing and Vienna this fall. He opened in Paris on Wednesday with a 6-4, 6-2 defeat of Zizou Bergs.

Jannik Sinner

Next up for Sinner on Thursday is a third-round showdown against Cerundolo. The head-to-head series stands at a surprisingly competitive 3-2 in Sinner’s favorite, but Cerundolo’s wins came before his opponent’s rise to the top of the game, including one via retirement in the first set in the 2022 Miami quarterfinals. They last played each other this spring in Rome, where Sinner treated the home crowd to a 7-6(2), 6-3 win. As if the chips weren’t stacked enough against the 21st-ranked Argentine, he needed a third-set tiebreak on Wednesday to get past Miomir Kecmanovic in a match that saw both boys regularly double up during the decider.

Choice: sinner in 2

(4) Taylor Fritz vs. (13) Alexander Bublik

Fritz and Bublik will face each other for the seventh time in their careers on Thursday. The head-to-head series are all tied at 3-3, with Bublik taking the first three from 2019 through 2021, before Fritz won three in a row from 2022 through 2024.

It wouldn’t be a bad thing if the tide turned in Bublik’s favor. The world number 16, who advanced this week with back-to-back wins over Alexei Popyrin and Corentin Moutet, has 35 match wins and four titles this season. Fritz heads back to the Nitto ATP Finals, but the American cooled off in recent weeks with early losses in Basel and Shanghai. What’s scary for the rest of the field – and especially for Fritz – is that even against the number four player in the world, the match is in Bublik’s racket. If the Kazakh plays well, he wins. And right now he’s playing incredible tennis.

Choice: Bublik in 3

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