Panelists: Silver in bull market, but expect price volatility

Significant tailwinds support silver

Over the past five years, silver prices have largely stagnated, trading between $20 and $25 an ounce until mid-2024, when the white metal breached the $30 mark. Even then, the price remained largely stable until 2025, when it crossed the $35 mark in June, then passed $40 in September and $50 in October.

However, the most significant increase occurred in early December, when momentum took over, sending silver on an historic run and rising to an all-time high of US$116 in late January.

Behind these rapid gains was a highly volatile silver market, which, despite strong fundamentals, became highly speculative and attractive to investors looking for an alternative to gold, which is also trading at record highs.

“You buy gold to avoid losing money, and you buy silver to make money, to buy more gold,” Spina said.

Silver is experiencing a six-year structural supply shortage, which is expected to continue until 2026.

An important cause of this shortage is the growing role of silver in industrial applications. Although the biggest gain comes from its use in solar panel production, it is also important for several other sectors, including automotive and defense.

“We wouldn’t have a modern civilization without silver. It’s used in countless different places, and what’s interesting now is that silver is very crucial for the national defense of the US, China and major superpowers. So it becomes a weapon,” Spina explains. He noted that the US designated silver as a critical mineral in 2025, placing it alongside copper for strategic purposes, and suggested that stockpiles are likely to be built up.

In addition to demand driving silver prices, Spina also noted that investors who had been absent from the market for years moved into net buying positions last year, which helped accelerate the market.

“It is more serious than the gold market because silver is so essential in our daily lives,” Spina said.

As demand increases, a serious situation is developing on the supply side. Most of the silver produced today is a byproduct of mining other metals such as copper and zinc.

Jessome outlined how dangerous the supply side is, noting that there were only 52 primary silver mines worldwide in 2025; by the end of 2026, that number is expected to drop to 46, and to 39 by 2027.

With so few mines and high prices, the expectation is that new production will come online, and while there are some in the pipeline, including Jessome’s Silver Tiger, the reality is that starting a new mine is fraught with challenges. He noted that the average time from first drill hole to production is 17 years.

“From that first borehole to a commercial mine, it’s one in a thousand. So if you think we’re going to solve these 39 in the next year, it’s not easy, it’s difficult,” Jessome told the VRIC audience.

He further explained that no matter what happens to the price, people don’t realize there isn’t enough silver.

Bull markets, withdrawals and moving forward

While silver fundamentals support high prices, the questions on many lips within VRIC were: “Is it too much, too soon?” and “Is it a bull market or is it a bubble?”

The consensus was that the metal is still in a bull market, but showing some bubble-like characteristics; Investors can expect corrections, but silver is likely to maintain momentum.

“We are several percent above the 200-day moving average. This is not something that is sustainable. If we continue at this pace, it would suck all the money from the markets into this one asset. It is not likely to continue,” Krauth said just days before a significant correction that pushed silver prices back below $70.

He pointed to the bull market from 2001 to 2011: silver rose from $4 to almost $50, but corrections occurred along the way. “There were five corrections of 15 percent or more. The average correction was 30 percent. That would now bring us to $75, $80,” Krauth emphasized to the audience at VRIC.

While the expert explained that a silver correction of that magnitude wouldn’t be shocking, he also pointed out that miners would still be quite happy with those prices.

Given the market volatility, Spina largely echoed Krauth’s belief that there is reason for investors to be excited, but also urged caution. He noted: “I would be very, very cautious if I tried to trade this, especially with leverage or anything like that, but I think we are in the revaluation phase. Silver could go a lot higher, but we could have some very nasty pullbacks along the way, and so you have to be ready for those events.”

Smirnova urged calm and hoped for a correction. She agreed with Krauth that silver’s parabolic trajectory was not sustainable, and said she sees the gold market as more stable.

She also suggested that instead of chasing opportunities, investors should be patient and wait for them to arise, rather than be afraid in such a volatile market.

“I would urge people to think, sit back and think about the reasons why silver got to where its stock price was in the first place, and whether those reasons still persist today, and they probably do. I think the fundamentals for silver haven’t changed, with corrections being used as opportunities to reload, to get in, to buy things that you know you like as an investor,” Smirnova said.

Takeaway for investors

Overall, the panel agreed that the key factors fueling a strong silver market, namely supply and demand, investment, and a bifurcated market, are not going anywhere anytime soon.

The demand for silver goes beyond investments and will play a crucial role in the energy transition, AI and technology, and national defense. However, they also agreed that it is probably happening too fast and that a correction is needed, which started back on January 29th. But no one expected the bull market to end.

Smirnova has done an excellent job of putting the changing silver market into perspective for investors.

“We mine and produce, between scrap and mining supply, 1 billion ounces a year at $30. That was a $30 billion market. At $100, it’s a $100 billion market. It’s nothing. We have companies trading at trillions of dollars in the market. The entire silver market is $100 billion a year, so it really doesn’t take much money to move the price, which is why I think it’s gone. In no time. $30 to $100,” she said.

While these price shifts do not require significant capital inflows, they make a significant difference to the entire industry. Krauth noted that silver developers and producers haven’t really taken the price of silver into account because their projections are currently based on prices that are two-thirds lower.

“Almost no one ever uses spot prices. They are demonstrably two-thirds below the spot price,” he said.

“So as the next few quarters roll around and the market starts to realize what kind of money these projects are generating, I think that’s when reality starts to sink in,” Krauth added.

The panel was largely optimistic that opportunities will continue to arise in the silver market. They noted that the physical silver price tends to be more volatile, but there are safer options for investors who don’t want to miss out on this price.