Guest: Dr. James M. Dorsey, Deputy Senior Fellow, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Go to the podcast https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/palestinian-statehood-in-more-han
The recognition of a Palestinian state at the UN gains strength, in which Australia, the UK and France join more than 145 countries to support. Nevertheless, large players such as the US and Japan hesitate. What impact does this have on a long -term solution for the war in Gaza? BFM 89.9 discusses this with Dr. James M. Dorsey, deputy senior fellow to S. Rajaratnam school of international studies.
Presenter: Elaine Boey, Shazana Mokhtar, Wong Shou Ning
Producer: Tun Hizami Hashim
Transcript
[Anchor] Let us focus our attention on what is going on in the middle and also at the UN. So, Western countries, including Australia, the UK, Canada and France, have now recognized a Palestinian state and this was recently done in the United Nations as tensions in Gaza and the West Bank continued to escalate.
This brings the total to more than 145 UN member states that already recognize Palestine, which shows the growing international support for a two-state solution. Countries such as Singapore, Japan, Germany, Italy, South Korea and the US, however, have no extensive recognition and full UN membership for Palestine remains blocked by vetos for the Security Council.
So, given this development, what implications could it have for the future of Israel-Palestinian negotiations on peace and how can Israel and his allies respond to this new wave of support for the Palestinian state and what does it really mean? For some analysis about this we speak with Dr. James Dorsey, Deputy Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
James, good morning. So we have seen a whole series of countries, especially from the West, officially recognizing a Palestinian state. How important is this movement? Is it really more symbolic than content at the moment?
[James M. Dorsey] Good morning, fun to be with you. I think it is measured in terms of what this means before an end to the Gaza war, the impact is zero than giving Palestinians a desperately needed moment of good news and a feeling of hope that will probably be fleeting. At state level, it has the only meaning in the sense that the Palestine upgrade as a sovereign state instead of an entity.
For example, it leaves it in theory agreements agreements with other states, although that is limited by the fact that Israel controls the boundaries of Palestine and in fact much of his country. Third, and that can be the most important thing, it underlines the growing insulation of Israel and by extension the United States. It explains more pressure, especially on Europeans, the only other party that in theory has at least some leverage with Israel.
It puts greater pressure on them to force Israel or put pressure on Israel to put an end to the Gaza war.
[Anchor] So there are around 45 countries, including Japan and Singapore, who do not recognize Palestine. What are their biggest worries behind this reluctance?
[James M. Dorsey] I think the concerns differ from country to country. Some of them are historically or historically rooted, as in the case of Germany. Some of them are the conviction that doing recognition at the end of a peace process encourages Palestinians to start more seriously and some of them fear that or not want to get on the wrong side of the United States, for fear that the United States can take action against States that recognize Palestine.
[Anchor] James, how do you expect the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government to respond to this increased recognition of Palestinians as a state?
[James M. Dorsey] I think we should wait. Much of it will rest on what happens when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu president Trump probably meets next week, Monday. Netanyahu and Israeli officials have hinted that there are different options.
An option would be to focus states that Palestine recently recognized individually. For example, in terms of closing their consulates in Jerusalem or forcing them to reduce the level of diplomatic representation in Israel. That is a set of options.
The second series of options would be much more consistent and that would be that Israel assigns a price tag to the recognition of Palestine in terms of responding by annexing parts of the West Bank. That is a movement that probably could force those countries, in the first place the Western European countries, Great Britain, France, Portugal, to take real action against Israel in terms of sanctions, arms embargos in response to the annexation. So I think we should wait and see what Trump says to Netanyahu in terms of what he will be green light and what he won’t do.
[Anchor] Now, James, you have mentioned earlier that this Israel only makes more isolated as a state. Do you think Benjamin Netanyahu really doesn’t matter? At the end of the day is the only country with which he entails the US.
[James M. Dorsey] The US is clearly the most important player in terms of diplomatic coverage for Israel, in terms of financial support, in terms of military support. But Europe is underestimated. I think you should keep in mind that Europe, not the United States, is by far the largest trading partner in Israel.
At the same time, Europe is a larger investor in Israel than the United States is and Israel is investing more in Europe than in the United States. About 30% of Israeli arms instructions are in Europe. Germany is the second largest arms supplier in Israel.
So that gives Europe an important leverage and I think people should not underestimate that.
[Anchor] But in the meantime, will James, in view of the constant expansion of Israel on the West Bank and the situation in Gaza, is a state for Palestinians to actually run?
[James M. Dorsey] I think we are at a crucial intersection. Unlike much common wisdom that it was already too late for a two -state solution, I think that option was still possible so far. Especially in view of the fact that if you do not look at the dots on the map of the West Bank that means Israeli settlements, but if you look at the concentration of the settlement population, the settlers are about 80% concentrated close to the green line of the war limits before 1967 between Israel and the West.
And that is why they could be brought under the Israeli sovereignty, were a Palestinian state that was founded very easily by performing Landwaps. Now you see Israeli movements with the E1 project that was recently approved by the Israeli government that would create settlements that almost cut the West Bank. And that makes a two -state solution much more difficult.
[Anchor] So what can Palestine do about that comment now? What strategies can they pursue to strengthen his status, his negotiation, his state?
[James M. Dorsey] Look, the Palestinians are caught in a certain sense between a rock and a hard place.
I think there are the two most important things they can do, is the Palestinian authority, the internationally recognized representation of the Palestinians in the West Bank. It is seen as an incompetent, as corrupt, as a young one. It must spend serious reforms that improve its credibility not only with the international community as the party that would rule Palestine as soon as the Gaza war is over and we have an agreement on the solution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but it must earn credibility among its own people.
It has a very low ranking. But the other part of it is the Palestinians as such, in other words, the Palestinian authority, as well as the various Palestinian factions, including the militants such as Hamas, must realize that their division is part of what the Palestinian negotiation position weakens.
[Anchor] James, thank you very much for talking to us. That was Dr. James Dorsey, Deputy Senior Fellow at S. Rajaratnam of International Studies, who helped us understand the implications of the growing recognition of the Palestinian state and the many obstacles on the way to real sovereignty for the time being.
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