How will Newcastle United end up in the Champions League this 2025/26 season?
Five matches have now been played.
The 2-1 defeat to Barcelona at St James’ Park.
Followed by the 4-0 away win against Union SG.
Then a 3-0 win over Benfica at SJP.
Then another brilliant 2-0 win over Athletic Bilbao at St James’ Park.
Marseille away on Tuesday evening and despite a 1-0 lead at half time, Newcastle United eventually lost 2-1.
Each of the 36 clubs plays four matches away and four at home.
Newcastle United still has to face Bayer Leverkusen (H), PSV Eindhoven (A) and PSG (A).
Opta have now provided their updated 2025-2026 Champions League projections for Newcastle United and the other 35 clubs, following the completion of all fifth round fixtures this week (see all 18 results below).
These are the updated predictions via to elect – November 26, 2025:
So the updated Opta predictions for Newcastle United:
Predicted final league position – 16th.
Predicted number of points after the eight competition matches: 12.65 points out of a possible 24.
Percentage chance of finishing top of the league after the eight games – a 0.02% chance of doing so.
Percentage chance of finishing in the play-offs – An 82.44% chance of finishing between 9th and 24th.
Percentage chance of top 8 and automatic qualification to the last 16 – A 16.59% chance of finishing between 9th and 24th.
Percentage chance of reaching the quarter-finals – A 28.01% chance of reaching the last eight.
Percentage chance of reaching the semi-finals – An 11.97% chance of reaching the last four.
Percentage chance of reaching the final – A 4.67% chance of reaching the final.
Percentage chance of winning the Champions League – A 1.83% chance of winning it all! (Opta rates Newcastle United as the twelfth most likely winners…)
Champions League results in the fifth round:
Tuesday November 25
Ajax 0 Benfica 2
Galatasaray 0 Union SG 1
Bodo/Glimt 2 Juventus 3
Borussia Dortmund 4 Villarreal 0
Chelsea3Barcelona0
Man City 0 Bayer Leverkusen 2
Marseille2 Newcastle United 1
Napoli 2 Qarabag 0
Slavia Prague 0 Athletic Club Bilbao 0
Wednesday November 26
FC Copenhagen 3 Kairat Almaty 2
Paphos 2 Monaco 2
Arsenal 3 Bayern Munich 1
Atletico Madrid 2 Inter Milan 1
Eintracht Frankfurt 0 Atalanta 3
Liverpool1PSV4
Olympiacos 3 Real Madrid 4
PSG5 Spurs3
Sporting Lisbon 3 Club Brugge 0
#Opta #projections #Newcastle #United #Champions #League #chances #completing