On a clear afternoon in April, two F-22 Raptors were seen corkscrewing into a DNA formation over Beale Air Force Base, about 60 miles from Sutter Health Park. After the exquisite aerial ballet, the ground absorbed the 44,000-pound plane, while the wheels vaporized smoke from the friction of the instantaneous acceleration. The awnings opened. The pilots felt the earth again, and then one of them roared enthusiastically: “I feel the need, the need for speed!” as he turned around and tried to give the other a high five. The 6-foot-4, 220-lb Jacob Lopez looked down at the 6-foot-1, 170-pound Tom Cruise, who is 63 years old yet looks the same age as Lopez, channeled his inner Will Smith and batted away the high-five. After thinking better of driving Cruise’s head into the ground like a nail, Lopez knelt down, looked Cruise straight in the eye and whispered, “Speed is nothing but a number.” And with that, poofLopez was gone.
Lopez is a 27-year-old, left-handed pitcher for the Athletics. He was selected by the San Francisco Giants in the 26th round of the 2018 draft. After two seasons, he was traded to the Tampa Bay Rays, where he spent four seasons before being shipped to the Athletics.
Jacob Lopez immediately showed his pitching qualities and recorded a strikeout percentage above 30%. After Tampa Bay got him, the K-BB% was over 30%! He was also excellent at keeping the ball in the yard. He underwent Tommy John surgery, which caused him to miss the entire 2022 season.
Lopez got his first MLB action in 2023 and 2024, albeit in extremely small sample sizes of 12.1 and 10.1 innings. The strikeout rate was in the teens. Ruh roh.
Last season, Lopez threw 92.2 innings with starts in 17 of 21 games. The strikeout rate was 28.3%, while the walk rate was 9.3%. Yippee! However, he did allow 15 home runs and finished the season with a 4.08 ERA and 4.26 FIP.
Lopez was more of a groundball pitcher early in his minor league career, but he is now more of a flyball pitcher. Last season the flyball percentage was 50.4%, which is cause for some concern considering Sutter Health Park was in the top 10 for home runs according to Baseball Savant’s Park Factors.
The biggest concern, however, is the average fastball velocity of 90.7 mph. Or is it? Hold on while I Whack-a-Mole Tom Cruise back into the box.
Of course speed helps, but Jacob Lopez is really a magician. The 28.7% whiff rate with the four-seam fastball was 25th in all of baseball last season! Tarik Skubal had the same figure of 28.7%! So, how does he do it? A magician never tells his trick, but in this day of Instagram and Fangraphs, everything has come to light.
One of the biggest reasons is the 7.2-inch extension in his delivery, which is in the 95th percentile. That 90 mph fastball certainly doesn’t look like 90 mph, especially when combined with his devastating slider, which yielded a 32.7% whiff rate last season. The changeup had a 31.3% whiff rate, while Lopez also threw a cutter and a sinker. The entire repertoire left the batters off balance, causing odors and weak contact. The average exit speed of 130.9 km/h and the hard hit rate of 53.2 km/h were both in the 94th percentile.
In eight of seventeen starts last season, Lopez struckout at least eight batters. He didn’t allow an earned run in seven starts and pitched at least six innings seven times.
However, when it was lit, it got the F lit. In his final start of the season, the Mariners tagged him for nine earned runs in just two innings in Seattle. Lopez allowed at least five earned runs three other times.
Is Lopez a top starter? Not. He is currently the fourth starting pitcher according to Roster Resource, and he is super cheap as he is the 340th player selected in the NFBC drafts in February. I’ll take the upside and missing power all day at that price.
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