The Dodgers and Kyle Tucker are a perfect fit, right? Not so fast – Dodgers Digest

I think we’re all aware that the Dodgers need some help. I also think we’re all aware that the best free agent on the market is an outfielder. So why am I actually against signing the Dodgers? Kyle Tucker? Let’s dive in.

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At first glance, Tucker seems like an almost perfect fit for the Dodgers and what they do. He’s still on the right side of 30 (29 in January), hits power, has excellent judgment in the strike zone and can steal bases. He checks a lot of boxes. But if you dig deeper, there are some areas of concern for him: present and future.

Despite a solid 2025 campaign in which he hit .266/.377/.464 with 22 home runs and a 136 wRC+, it was a tale of two halves for him.

As you can see, he did significantly more damage in the first half. Had he been able to maintain that level of production through the second half of the year, it’s entirely possible he could have landed a deal worth at least $400 million. With his problems in the second half – partly due to a hairline fracture in his right hand that may or may not have fully healed – he is looking at a payday of only More than $300 million. I’m kidding, but its rather pedestrian second half causes some concern as its power evaporated.

Part of the disappearing power comes from him hitting the ball much faster in the second half (42.6 GB%) than in the first half (30.7%). His launch angle decreased by 6 degrees and his fly ball rate decreased by 11.5 percentage points. What’s also baffling about this is actually his BABIP decreased with almost 40 points, despite the ball hitting the ground so much more than in the first half. His average groundball exit rate and HardHit% dropped from the first half, so that helps explain the lower BABIP. It was just a bad second half for the outfielder.

Another thing to keep an eye on with his bat is his declining exit velocity – both average and maximum. Here are his percentile rankings since 2021 (his first full non-COVID season):

Average EV
2021: 85th
2022: 69th
2023: 68th
2024: 80th*
2025: 53rd
*- Did not qualify; had the same exit velocity as Jurickson Professor (91.1 mph)

Maximum EV
2021: 79th
2022: 75th
2023: 59th
2024: 36th
2025: 39th

Not great for a hitter who has excellent on-base skills but saw his isolated power dip below .200 for the first time since his 72-plate MLB debut in 2018. The good thing about Tucker is that he walks a lot and doesn’t strike out a lot. Its .198 ISO is still there well above averagebut you basically get the outfield version of Freddie Vrijman (again, not bad!), minus the BABIP, for the Manny Machado price. Tucker still has over 20 home runs, but we may never see him top 30 home runs because that’s his career best (2021 and 2022).

His defense certainly hasn’t collapsed, has it? I have bad news for you.

Tucker dealt with a shin problem with the Astros in 2024, which was misdiagnosed and cost him most of the season. It also cost him his sprint speed and negatively affected his outfield range. But his speed and range issues started in 2022. In fact, 2022 was the last time he posted a positive FanGraphs’ Defensive WAR (3.6). Since then, his dWAR has taken a big hit:

• 2023: -9.6
• 2024: -0.9
• 2025: -5.1

Conversely, his other defensive stats are also trending in the wrong direction:

DRS

2023:2
2024:7
2025: -1

OAA
2023: -4
2024:2
2025: -2

The fact is that he may not be a good defender anymore. Of course, he’s not going to land a mega deal based on his glove, but it was an added benefit that has made him one of the true 5-tool players in the sport. It also means that while he would still pass up a defensive upgrade Teoscar Hernándezit may not be as substantial an upgrade as it seems.

Despite the reduced sprint speed, he still stole 25 bases – second most in his career. He did this in 28 attempts. In fact, he is 119-for-135 in his career, good for a Chase Utleyan 88.1% success rate. The Dodgers as a team had a solid 77.8% success rate in 2025, so that part of Tucker’s game would be a welcome addition.

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At least with Freeman we knew there would be a decline in power when he hit his mid-30s. Tucker isn’t even 30 yet and has already seen a slight decline. While all things are equal, Cody Bellinger could be the better option for any team – not just the Dodgers – in the future. You get 70-75% of Tucker’s offensive production and a significantly better defense for more than half the cost in years and money.

Tucker goes to get his bag. It could be the Dodgers, it could be the Blue Jays, Yankees, Phillies or someone else. But this is more of a buyer beware moment, and while it would be easy for the Dodgers to throw money at their lack of outfield production, Tucker may not be the right guy for them. On the other hand, free agent options are so limited that the Dodgers may be more willing to take a chance on him to take even more advantage of their World Series window than they already have.

If the Dodgers sign Tucker, I won’t be upset. I just don’t think he’s the best option, and I don’t really think they’ll sign him either.