“While topline delinquency figures show a sharp increase, we have seen similar spikes in previous years when November ended on a Sunday and scheduled payments did not occur until early December,” said Andy Walden, head of mortgage and housing market research at ICE. “Overall, performance was in line with what historical patterns suggest. That said, December data will be important to watch to confirm how quickly borrowers recover from this temporary rebound.”
The number of new delinquent borrowers was striking
The influx of new delinquent borrowers was notable: 609,000 homeowners who were current in October fell behind on their payments in November, the largest single-month increase since May 2020.
Moves into deeper categories of delinquencies, including loans that are from 30 to 60 days and from 60 to 90 days delinquent, also rose sharply.
Prepayment activity retreated in November after reaching a three-and-a-half year high in October. The monthly prepayment rate fell by almost 18% from the previous month to 0.83%, although it remained more than 30% higher than a year earlier.
Foreclosure activity was mixed. Seasonal and calendar factors contributed to a month-over-month decline in foreclosures and sales, with foreclosures down 31.5% to 26,000 and foreclosures down nearly 14% to 6,700.
But despite the monthly decline, foreclosures, sales and active inventory of foreclosures all remained more than 20% higher than a year earlier.
As of November 30, 226,000 properties were in presale inventory, unchanged from October but up 41,000 from a year earlier. The total number of properties that were at least 30 days past due or in foreclosure rose to 2.34 million, an increase of 275,000 from October.
The number of defaults varied widely by state. Louisiana and Mississippi recorded the highest shares of long-term loans, both nearly 8.75%, followed by Alabama, Arkansas and Indiana. California, Washington and several Mountain West states reported the lowest long-term interest rates, all below 2.5%.
Mississippi, Louisiana and Alabama also led the way in loans that were at least 90 days past due. Meanwhile, Florida, South Carolina and Hawaii recorded the largest year-over-year improvements in long-term interest rates, while Maryland, Utah and the District of Columbia showed the strongest annual increases.
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