Not so much stats, but vibrations are driving Maple Leaf’s hot streak

What’s interesting is how the sausage was made. The Maple Leafs have achieved a BOB of 103.8 over that stretch. There has been strong goaltending in that time, but the shooting percentage of 12.5% ​​in particular has brought them a lot of luck. What’s interesting is that the Leafs have the fourth-lowest Corsi by percentage (CF%), the seventh-lowest shots by percentage, the tenth-lowest expected goals by percentage (xG%), and the sixth-lowest high-danger Corsi (HDCF%) in the league at 5-on-5 during this span. These numbers are very similar to what the Leafs have put up over the first half of the year and are typically numbers that represent a team missing the playoffs or relying on a PDO heater to take them as far as possible. Essentially, this is Randy Carlyle hockey.

Those 5v5 numbers oversimplify things a bit, and special teams tells an important story, too. The Maple Leafs have a power play conversion rate of 31.2 over those ten games, good enough for fourth in the league in that time, and a 91.7% kill rate when shorthanded, which is the best in the league since December 23. The penalty kill rate has grown to third best in the league this season and after a power play that finished last in the NHL, the Leafs are now 24th in the league, which is still not great, but is a great dead cat bounce.

If the numbers at the team level have no meaning, they start rating a player based on the player’s preference. First off, William Nylander has a shooting percentage of 55.56% and 10 points in the four games he has played. Auston Matthews is the team’s leading scorer with fourteen points in nine games, and eight of those points are goals. Matthew Knies has a shooting percentage of 25% and nine points, John Tavares has nine points, and while the big dogs are barking, Nick Robertson, Max Domi, Bobby McMann, Matias Maccelli and Nicolas Roy have all seen their games rise as well. And while the Leafs may still get the upper hand at 5-on-5 or, at best, trade chances at 5-on-5, the ability to win games on special teams takes advantage of the fact that chances from Matthews are worth more than chances from most players in the league and creates an encouraging trade-off for the Maple Leafs. It may be the only way the numbers make sense.

The point is that players are not numbers, they are people, and the atmosphere is important. This team did receive a wake-up call with the dismissal of Marc Savard. This team has had to come to terms with the fact that Matthews was underperforming to start the year and that William Nylander had hit a rough patch before Christmas. Things weren’t working on special teams and Steve Sullivan giving the team the opportunity to try something new was taken in the right way and embraced by the team who rolled with the restart in the best way possible.

Does this mean people shouldn’t worry about the Leafs?

Absolutely not. Peak performances from the top end of the depth chart will only last for so long and the Leafs have six other teams within two points of them in the wild card race, three of which have a game in hand against the Leafs. The fact that it took 18 points in 10 games to get Toronto back to the playoff bubble shows how poorly the first 35 games have gone this season. A dip in that direction or even the rest of the bubble outpacing the Leafs could still result in an unhappy ending to the 2025-2026 season.

For now, the team is embracing the vibes. They’re catching breaks, which is a rarity for the Leafs, and they’re finding confidence. If any of that stays outside of this 10-game window, the Leafs might end up overachieving compared to their numbers.

PRESENTED BY OFF THE ROSTER