College Football Conference championship weekend is here and the action kicks off on Friday, December 5 with four title games. Among them is the American Athletic Conference Championship between the 11-1 North Texas Mean Green and the 10-2 Tulane Green Wave. The stakes are as high as they can get in this game, as the winner is all but guaranteed a spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff.
Let’s take a look at my top picks for the AAC Championship.
North Texas Mean Green vs. Tulane Green Wave Odds
Moneyline: North Texas -136 / Tulane +116
Distribution: North Texas -2.5 (-110) / Tulane +2.5 (-110)
Total: More than 66.5 (-110) / Less than 66.5 (-110)
North Texas Mean Green vs. Tulane Green Wave Best Bet No. 1: North Texas -2.5 (-110)
Over the past five weeks, North Texas has been one of the hottest offenses in sports. The Mean Green have topped the FBS landscape in PPA per game since Week 10, are among the top five teams in turnover margin, and typically finish their quality drives with points more often than not, given their nation-leading 5.2 points per quality drive and nation-best 56 red zone touchdowns this season. All of these traits make North Texas much more reliable offensively than Tulane, because the Green Wave isn’t as efficient from bottom to bottom — nor as good as the Mean Green in the red zone (as evidenced by their 101st ranking out of 136 FBS teams in red zone touchdown percentage).
Considering both defenses leave a lot to be desired (outside the top 50 in scoring, total defense, and PPA per game), choosing the more reliable offense is the move in the AAC Championship – especially considering North Texas has the better offensive line and quarterback play while being better against the spread. In fact, UNT QB Drew Mestemaker has double the number of big throws as Tulane QB Joey Retzlaff, as well as half the number of turnover-worthy plays — of which Retzlaff had three alone against Charlotte last week of all teams. The Mean Green are 10-2 ATS this season, including a perfect 4-0 ATS as road favorites in AAC play, and they have larger margins of victory than almost any regular opponent compared to Tulane’s schedule. Meanwhile, Tulane is 2-4 ATS in its last six outings.
North Texas Mean Green vs. Tulane Green Wave Best Bet #2: Wyatt Young Over 102.5 receiving yards (-115)
The weakest part of Tulane’s defense is the secondary. The Green Wave is allowing nearly 252 passing yards per game, which ranks 119th nationally, and has surrendered 20 passing touchdowns this year (92nd). Additionally, they sit outside 76th in PPA per pass and 109th in passing percentage allowed this season, and those numbers have been even worse over the past five weeks. That’s not exactly where you want to be defensively when playing against such an electric passing attack like North Texas.
UNT WR Wyatt Young should benefit greatly from lining up against Tulane’s leaky secondary. Young is the nation’s top-rated wide receiver according to PFF’s classification, has averaged just under 20 yards per reception, and ranks third in receiving yards this season despite having a whopping 40 fewer receptions than UConn’s Skyler Bell and 26 fewer receptions than San Jose State’s Danny Scudero — the only two receivers above Young in terms of receiving yards. He has collected at least seven receptions – and as many as 12 – in six of his last seven games, accumulating at least 102 yards in five of them (all since Week 8). Considering the matchup and his usage in attack, Young should have a great day.
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