Carlos Alcaraz vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime may be a mismatch on paper, but nowhere is it a fairer fight than on an indoor hard court.
That’s why their semifinal showdown at the Nitto ATP Finals is a must-see match on Saturday night, and one that could be more competitive than expected. Auger-Aliassime is an absolute force indoors, with seven of his eight lifetime titles on this surface. This includes a recent victory in Brussels, which preceded a second place at the Paris Masters.
The 2025 US Open semi-finalist has brought his excellent form to Turin. He opened with a loss to defending champion Jannik Sinner, but recovered to beat Ben Shelton 4-6, 7-6(7), 7-5 and Alexander Zverev 6-4, 7-6(4).
Saturday is the eighth meeting between Alcaraz and Auger-Aliassime. Alcaraz leads the head-to-head series 4-3, having won four straight heading into this high-stakes showdown. They faced each other three times last season, as the Spaniard triumphed in straight sets at the Indian Wells Masters, Roland Garros and the Paris Olympics. However, Auger-Aliassime has won both previous indoor hard-court encounters: 6-7(3), 6-4, 6-2 in the 2022 Davis Cup and 6-3, 6-2 in Basel.
So Alcaraz rolled through his round-robin group without losing a match achieving the number 1 ranking at the end of the year. The 22-year-old defeated Alex de Minaur 7-6(5), 6-2, Taylor Fritz 6-7(2), 7-5, 6-3 and Lorenzo Musetti 6-4, 6-1.
This is Alcaraz’s third performance in Turin; he never got past the semi-finals. Despite being a heavy favorite, it won’t be easy for him to make it to the title match this time. Auger-Aliassime is extremely difficult to break indoors, and he’s not a guy you want to play tiebreakers against. The eighth-ranked Canadian is an astonishing 32-14 in ‘breakers this season, including an incredible 20-3 in his last 23 dating back to the Cincinnati Masters.
Auger-Aliassime will have to play much better than he did against Zverev on Friday… but he probably will. There was more pressure on him in that match, and it’s easy to get caught up in the German’s passive playing style from the baseline. That’s not going to happen in this match, and Auger-Aliassime can play with nothing to lose.
Don’t be shocked if a first year-end championship final and first indoor victory over Auger-Aliassime eludes Alcaraz again.
Choice: Auger-Aliassime in 3
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