Week 7 is almost complete and betting lines are now available for week 8. Here are our favorite early spread picks for the slate.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Denver Broncos (-3) [Total: 48.5]
Best bet: over 48.5
The Cowboys are seemingly aware that winning requires them to be aggressive on offense and race teams to run to 35. Dallas has the top five in nearly every major offensive statistic, including EPA per game (0.149, second) and scoring drive (52.0%, third). And that may just be the tip of the iceberg after the team welcomed back star wide receiver CeeDee Lamb after a nearly four-game absence.
With a full complement of weapons in Week 7, the Cowboys offense put up 34 points on the Washington Commanders through three quarters before taking their foot off the gas pedal. The Commanders defense isn’t of the caliber of the group Dallas will face in Denver, but quarterback Dak Prescott may be better equipped to handle the heat than most. Prescott’s NFL-best 84.4 PFF pressure grade will take center stage against Denver’s league-leading 45.7% pressure rate.
On the other hand, Bo Nix and the Broncos have struggled with offensive consistency but have also shown stellar performances. This past week, they entered the fourth quarter without an out on the board against the Giants before scoring 33 points in the final frame to earn the win. Given Dallas’ defensive struggles – contributing five overs this season – the Broncos can find a rhythm offensively.
Green Bay Packers (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers [Total: 44.5]
Best bet: Packers -2.5
The Steelers are coming off a mini-bye and a very disappointing performance against the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday Night Football, while the Packers are similarly fresh off a win against the Arizona Cardinals.
But of course we never want to index too much on one game. Throughout the season, the Packers have been on a completely different team level than the Steelers. Choose your efficiency metric, but this is a Packers offense that is far superior – whether it’s EPA, passing percentage, EDP yards per per play, etc.
And in the field of defense the gap is only widening. The Steelers have fielded a bottom-tier defense by almost every metric, while the Packers have allowed the fewest yards per play of any team. But because Green Bay has only generated three turnovers, the team’s EPA numbers don’t look that good compared to the Steelers’ (10 turnovers, fourth highest).
These teams are simply not at the same level and we expect this game to trend more towards the Packers.
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