Week 5 Is almost a wrap, and gambling lines are now available for week 6. Here are our favorite early spread picks for the slate.
Arizona Cardinals @ Indianapolis Colts (-4.5) [Total: 47.5]
Oddmakers continue to take missteps when setting the point for the Colts, which have an NFL-best 80% coverage percentage (4-1), with their only loss in a Fluy match against the rams in week 4. In Luke Oil Stadium, the Colts are 3-0 against the distribution, including a few dominant victories as favorites. Indianapolis has a credit on those versions and has the highest spread differential (+12.9) in the NFL.
In week 6, the Colts de Cardinals, which play a cheeky loss for the previously Winless Titans as 7.5-point favorites at home. Errors and miscues remain torpedo what Momentum Arizona was able to build, marked by a few Back-Break turnover this last week. A rotating door in the rear field has caused more continuity problems. The cardinals are currently in the lower eight in EPA per rush and successful playing speed, making it difficult to stay on schedule and produce extensive discs in this matchup.
Conversely, the Colts possess the most efficient attack in the NFL, which are first arranged in EPA each, successful playing speed and touchdown -drive speed. If Arizona cannot find any ways to keep Indianapolis off the field, it can become ugly.
New England Patriots (-3.5) @ New Orleans Saints [Total: 46.5]
The patriots come from a big win over the bills on Sunday evening football, but the market did not upgrade the team for the first five weeks.
It is obvious: Quarterback Drake Maye is in the top five of the success rate and EPA per piece, in addition to wearing an excellent pff -generally figure. Maye comes up as a superstar in a budding violation.
But it is also remarkable that the defense of the Patriots, now healthier, starts to perform with a great clip. The team kept Buffalo to the lows in most attacking categories season after dominating the Panthers a week earlier.
In a matchup with a Saints team that is extremely run-heavy, the Patriots are well equipped to thrive, in the top five of the Rushing EPA allowed. New England, with an emerging MVP candidate and a sneaky good defense, is in another low than the saints. A distribution of 3.5, even with the home field advantage, is in our opinion too few points.
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