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Same-game parlays (SGPs) allow you to combine multiple bets from one game into one ticket, increasing the potential payout if your game script is applied. Our SGP picks are built around data-driven stories – how a match is likely to unfold, which players are best positioned to benefit and where the edges lie.
This week we also lean on the new PFF Player Prop Toolexclusively available for PFF+ members. It highlights the props with the highest likelihood of success, surfaces matchup insights that NFL teams track themselves, and syncs with sportsbooks in real time so you always know where the best number is.
Here are our top SGP picks for Week 17, each linked to a clear story that the data suggests could be playing out.
Trevor Lawrence finds Parker Washington deep in the field
Building on our matchup angleit’s worth examining who is most likely to benefit from Trevor Lawrence’s goals against a man-heavy Colts defense.
Parker Washington leads the Jaguars with a target rate of nearly 30% against man coverage, and he has made the most of those opportunities.
Washington is one of the NFL’s most effective wide receiver versus man coverages, backed by strong underlying numbers and a robust 2.8 yards per route against man. With a healthy average depth of 13 meters, he should also see opportunities in the field Jacksonville has taken a more aggressive approach.
If Washington converts to these deep targets, a path will be set for Lawrence to clear his yardage while staying under his target and operating efficiently through the air.
SGP Build: 95-1 on DraftKings
- QB Trevor Lawrence: 290+ passing yards and fewer than 33.5 attempts
- Jacksonville Jaguars: -9.5
- W. Parker Washington: 100+ receiving yards
Geno Smith finds Tre Tucker for a deep touchdown in a Raiders win
This is a spot where the Raiders should be fully invested, as Geno Smith has little incentive to take it easy while his potential replacement looms.
The Giants’ defense has been terrible all season and has been particularly vulnerable in recent weeks, allowing the third-most yards per attempt over the past month while also surrendering the third-highest explosive passing percentage.
Much of that comes from a coverage approach that leads offenses to the deep passing game, as New York has allowed the third-highest number of deep attempts in the NFL.
That plays directly to Tre Tucker’s strengths. Tucker possesses one of the deeper average depths of targets on the Raiders and ranks fourth in deep targets. The lack of production is largely related to protection issues, as the offensive line has struggled to give Smith time to throw. That could change here for two reasons: a Giants-run defense that has struggled to stop anyone, creating more favorable passing situations, and the expected return of left tackle Kolton Miller, who should help neutralize New York’s top threat, Brian Burns.
If Smith has time to throw, Tucker should see opportunities down the field, and all the Raiders need is one converted deep shot to exceed expectations and get their props in this game.
SGP Build: 85-1 on DraftKings
- QB Geno Smith: 280+ passing yards
- WR Tre Tucker: 100+ receiving yards and always TD
- Las Vegas Raiders: Moneyline
Miami Dolphins are leaning on QB Quinn Ewers
As has become common during the Todd Bowles era, the Buccaneers are one of the NFL’s biggest pass funnels, much easier to throw at than run at. Tampa Bay has a 14% gap between passing and running success rates, almost three percentage points greater than the next team. As a result, opponents have thrown more against the Buccaneers than any other defense once the game state and situation is taken into account.
Not only does Tampa Bay lead offenses to the pass, but the results, especially lately, have been shaky. Over the past six weeks, the Buccaneers have ranked in the bottom five in yards per attempt allowed as the defense has struggled to hold its own.
While Quinn Ewers’ sample size remains limited, he has been efficient from a distance standpoint, averaging 9.3 yards per attempt and excelling on throws in the system with a strong EPA of 0.8, along with similar results on plays without disruption. In that small sample size, Ewers has also handled the blitz well, with an EPA of 0.24 per game. He now faces a Tampa Bay defense that has struggled to cause disruption in recent weeks while blitzing at a top-five pace.
While one game is far from definitive, it does provide support for a positive attack on Ewers in this matchup.
SGP Build: 37-1 on DraftKings
- QB Quinn Ewers: 280+ passing yards and 32+ attempts
- Miami Dolphins: Moneyline
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