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Over the years, PFF data scientists have conducted extensive studies to better understand and predict player performance. While many of these foundational works continue to shape discussions and influence analysis, the focus here is on identifying how these insights apply to specific weekly matchups and uncovering opportunities that the betting market may have overlooked.
Some bets will tap into traditional markets, while others will explore more niche options to ensure we tap into the markets that are best suited to a particular position or angle.
Trevor Lawrence is in a good spot against the stymied Colts secondary
One of the impacts PFF has examined is coverage as a weak-link system, where a single mistake can significantly undermine a defense’s ability to limit the success of a passing game.
Shown here is the distribution of perfectly covered plays versus plays with a coverage breakdown, along with the long tail of offensive success that follows when an error occurs.
As for this matchup, the Colts have struggled to generate perfect coverage all season, especially in recent weeks. Injuries in the secondary have left Indianapolis with one of the weakest coverage units in the NFL, as it has forced the fewest perfectly covered plays in that span.
Trevor Lawrence has faced average perfect coverage this season, but when things do go wrong, he’s rated as one of the league’s best quarterbacks and ranks as the second-tier with the sixth-best PFF grade.
With the base percentage of coverage errors likely to increase versus this secondary coverage, Lawrence should see more opportunities to reach his ceiling results. Combined with the aggressive downfield approach this offense has taken since the arrival of Jakobi Meyers, this presents a place to be bullish on the Jaguars, with Lawrence overs, Jacksonville alternate lines and same-game parlays standing out as intriguing options.
Joe Burrow should put up numbers against a poor Cardinals pass rush
Continuing the theme of weak links, PFF also studied the offensive line as a weak link system and the importance of each lineman executing their assignment to sustain offensive success. While that principle applies league-wide, certain quarterbacks are better equipped to mitigate its effects based on their attributes and playing style.
In other words, some quarterbacks are more susceptible to upfront disruptions than others.
Joe Burrow clearly falls into that category. He has one of the best EPA numbers when his protection holds up, but also one of the worst when even one blocker makes a mistake.
This game against the Cardinals is going well, like Arizona is near the bottom of the league on virtually all pressure levels and has committed the fewest blocking errors of any defense this season.
Burrow should be able to operate efficiently in this spot, making the Bengals, his passing props and related parlays attractive options in the same game.
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