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Here are two props that stand out ahead of Week 16 of the 2025 NFL season.
WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over 56.5 receiving yards
Evans returned for Week 15 against the Falcons after missing the previous six games due to a broken collarbone. The six-time Pro Bowl wideout showed no obvious signs of rust, catching six of his 10 targets for 132 yards.
This week the Panthers will host the Buccaneers in a pivotal two-team matchup of the NFC South, their first of two meetings over the next three weeks to close out the regular season.
Evans thinks he’ll see his fair share of cornerback Jaycee Horn, a player he’s had success against in the past. For his career, Evans has been targeted against Horn on 42.3% of his targets, which is a sign he was able to see the ball often in Week 16. For the season, Horn’s PFF coverage grade of 63.2 ranks 51st out of 112 qualifying cornerbacks.
Evans returned to action against the Falcons despite his impressive stats. His 38 snaps were third-most on the team, well behind Chris Godwin (66) and Emeka Egbuka (44). It would be a surprise if his rushing total wasn’t significantly higher this week in a game with playoff implications, and he has shown time and time again that he goes the extra mile when the stakes are highest.
RB Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers: Under 43.5 rushing yards
The Steelers travel to Detroit to take on the Lions in a battle of two 8-6 teams with playoff hopes in Week 16. Pittsburgh is coming off an impressive double-digit win over the Miami Dolphins, while the Lions lost a shootout to the Los Angeles Rams in a game with 75 points on the board.
Running back Kenneth Gainwell stood out during the second half of the season for the Steelers. He outplayed starter Jaylen Warren in four of the past six games and has been the much more productive player of late, racking up 440 yards since Week 11. Warren has seen his production decline over that span, totaling just 289 yards. After carrying the ball a season-high 23 times in Week 12 against the Bears, Warren has had a total of 23 turnovers over the past three weeks. Additionally, he has averaged no more than 1.92 yards after contact per attempt over the stretch.
This week’s matchup is not favorable for Warren, as the Lions’ defense ranks fourth in PFF run defense grade (76.6). Warren has the third-largest difference in rushing yards between light and heavy boxes this season. Detroit uses stacked boxes at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, which could limit Warren’s effectiveness on the field.
The Lions are currently seven-point favorites, meaning we’ll likely see another healthy dose of Gainwell as the clear preferred option in the passing game.
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