NFL Conference Championship Betting Notebook

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We have two more games to determine the Super Bowl 60 matchup: Patriots vs. Broncos in the AFC and Rams vs. Seahawks in the NFC.

We’ll once again try to make sense of these two matchups by putting together relevant data in a bulleted narrative form, hitting individual game markets and player props I like, and SGP angles.

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos (+4.5) | 42.5 Total

• This game started with the Broncos as 1.5-point favorites on the forward line, before moving to Patriots -5.5 following news of Bo Nix’s injury. It appears to have stabilized at the current number of 4.5.
  • I think that line move is an overreaction since Denver’s Super Bowl case in the AFC didn’t start with quarterback performance.
    • Their strengths include home field advantage, a very good defense and an edge over most teams in the NFL. That’s all still true.
    • Nix ranked 12th among quarterbacks overall in PFF this season (the only remaining quarterback not ranked in the top 10), and the Broncos made Jarrett Stidham one of the highest-paid backup quarterbacks in the NFL when they signed him.
• The Patriots’ defensive front has had a chance to capitalize on two of the weaker offensive lines in the NFL in their first two playoff games.
  • New England produced a 52% pressure rate against the Chargers and Texans.
  • These offensive lines ranked 31st (Chargers) and 21st (Texans) in PFF pass-blocking grades this season. The Broncos are in first place.
    • I have no confidence that New England’s pass rush can have the same kind of success.
• It’s a limited sample size, but Stidham has a respectable PFF grade of 76.2 and is averaging 8.3 yards per attempt in stints with the Raiders and Broncos since 2022 when throwing from a clean pocket.
  • The Broncos have also been one of the toughest teams in the NFL in neutral situations this season.
  • The Patriots’ full-strength defense (Milton Williams, Robert Spillane and others healthy) is one of the better units in the NFL.
    • We saw that last week against the Texans.
  • All of which leads me to Jarrett Stidham passing overs/alts, with the sub-200m line being one of my favorite prop angles in the two games.
• The Patriots have a top-10 man coverage percentage this season, and Courtland Sutton was a top-10 wide receiver in the NFL against man coverage this season (88.1).
  • Sutton could get a shadow of Christian Gonzalez, but that doesn’t stop me from liking him given the division over his guy and my opinion that the Broncos’ passing attack is underrated at this spot.
• New England has also struggled against tight ends this season (25th in yards per coverage snap allowed for tight ends), which could be an opportunity for Evan Engram to top his receiving yardage line at just 21 yards.
• I expect the Patriots to lean heavily in this matchup.
  • New England’s rushing attack ranks 25th in EPA per game
  • Denver’s run defense ranks fourth in the EPA per play allowed
• Stefon Diggs stands out as the player I want to target in this matchup.
  • He ranks in the top 10 in slot receiving yards and will likely avoid Pat Surtain II if he is in that lineup.
  • Diggs also has the fifth-highest PFF receiving grade differential against man coverage compared to zone (higher vs. man), and Denver has man coverage at one of the highest rates in the NFL.
• I’ll bet on Sutton + Diggs 125-plus combined receiving yards (+195) as I like the matchup for both and it offers some flexibility as I don’t have to bet on who has the bigger game on alts.

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) | 46.5 Total

• In both previous meetings between these teams this season, the Rams played a large portion of the game up front.
  • They led 14-9 at halftime in Week 11.
  • They led 13-7 at halftime in Week 16.
• In both games, the Seahawks managed to stay in the game and force late decisions with high passing volume from Sam Darnold.
  • They missed a long field goal as time expired in a two-point loss in Week 11.
  • They won in overtime in Week 16.
  • Darnold averaged 39 pass attempts per game in these two games.
• I think the consensus around Sam Darnold and Seattle is that you want to force them into negative game scripts, but they have shown some resilience in limited opportunities in those spots this year.
  • The Seahawks have posted the highest EPA per play rating in the NFL when trailing by seven or more points (on just over 150 offensive snaps).
• That’s all to say I think there’s an opportunity to bet on a similar game script: Darnold 34-plus attempts, Blake Corum 10-plus rush attempts and Rams 1H/Seahawks full game ML at 75-1.
  • As for the Corum component of this, the Rams have a 58% run rate on early downs against the Seahawks in the first half of this season.
    • Seattle ranks second with a two-high safety percentage, and the Rams have shown a willingness to try to establish a ground game early in previous meetings.
    • I’d rather bet on Corum tries than Kyren Williams on lower lines given the split we’ve seen late in the season (excluding last week).
    • Drive attempts are more attractive than yards due to the inefficient volume for the Rams’ run game, while playing from the front offers opportunities for the Rams 1H/SEA play portion
      • Seattle is the best-performing defense in the NFL this season by a significant margin.
• I’ve been in Seattle for much of this season routing targets to tight ends (came through again last week with Jake Tonges overs prior to his injury, despite the 49ers’ overall struggles).
  • Theoretically, Colby Parkinson will benefit most from this as the Rams’ primary tight end.
    • Los Angeles was a tough 13-man offense (three tight ends), but they opted for more three-receiver sets against the Bears, and Parkinson (53 offensive snaps) beat Terrance Ferguson (23), Davis Allen (nine) and Tyler Higbee (eight) by a wide margin.
    • Parkinson was also the most used player in the red zone when he was on the field, not just for the Rams, but for the entire NFL.
      • He targets 45% of routes in the red zone (only player above 40% with more than 25 routes).
• I also like a lot of the awards for many of the marginal receiving options for the Rams to score the game’s first touchdown.
  • The Rams have a 61% success rate in the red zone in two playoff games.
  • I like to beat Konata Mumpfield at 100-1 to score first. He ran a route on six of eight red zone dropbacks for Matthew Stafford last week and has four red zone targets through the first half of the season.
    • He scored the first touchdown in the Rams’ international game against the Jaguars.
    • If last week’s heavier 11-man deployment is not an anomaly and we see it again, it will provide more opportunities for Mumpfield. This price is attractive considering his skills in the red zone.
• If we expect the Seahawks to top their base rate in a competitive game, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has the potential to cross high lines (6.5 receptions, 91.5 receiving yards)
  • Smith-Njigba has seen 24 targets in two games against the Rams this season, and Los Angeles ranked in the bottom five of the NFL in receiving yards allowed outside wide receivers during the regular season.