Analysis of Newcastle United and why goals seemed to have dried up without Alexander Isak.
Once one of the Premier League’s most dynamic attacking teams, Eddie Howe’s Newcastle side now look strangely blunt in front of goal.
The sale of Alexander Isak to Liverpool in the summer left a void that the Magpies are still trying to fill. Despite Nick Woltemade’s positive start at individual level, early figures suggest the team is still struggling.
In addition to Woltemade’s four Premier League goals, only three different players have scored for Newcastle so far, which was further analyzed in our ranking of Premier League teams based on how dependent they are on one player.
So why have the targets dried up?
Newcastle’s attack has lost its edge
Selling your best player is never without pain. When that player is 25, reaching his peak and central to your entire attacking structure, it can define a season. That is where Newcastle find themselves after sanctioning Isak’s £120m move to Liverpool in August.
During his three years on Tyneside, Isak provided 63 goals and assists in the league and helped Newcastle qualify for the Champions League twice. His combination of movement, finish and the ability to create something from nothing was central to their identity.
Without him, the numbers have dropped quite worryingly. After nine Premier League games, Newcastle are in twelfth place with twelve points and have one of the best defenses in the league, but also one of the worst attacks.
Only Nottingham Forest, Wolves and West Ham have scored fewer than their nine goals, and their expected goals without penalties (xG) per 90 minutes have fallen from 1.46 last season to 1.06, according to State bomb.
That doesn’t seem like nonsense.
Few teams defend as well as Newcastle at the moment, but their xG for tells the real story of why goals have dried up.
Why Newcastle’s chance creation has collapsed
Under Howe, Newcastle were generally direct and vertical: quick to get the ball forward, quick to attack space. But the structure that once suited Isak now looks somewhat one-dimensional without him.
to elect data shows they rank:
- 17th in series time (how long they hold the ball before shooting),
- 15th in 10+ passing seriesAnd
- 11th in open play series reaching the box.
They still go long more often than most (5th in the league for long passes attempted), but they struggle to create consistent pressure once those second balls are recovered.
The result? Property that looks energetic, but is rarely dangerous.
Long passes attempted versus completed. Newcastle are among the most direct teams in the competition. Data source: FBref
A blunt left side and a crooked attack
Injuries didn’t really help. With Lewis Hall out, Dan Burn is back at left-back – a solid defender, yes, but one who doesn’t exactly stretch the defense.
Newcastle’s shape often becomes an asymmetrical 4-3-3, with Burn diving deep and Anthony Gordon having to do most of the work on the flank.
Woltemade often falls short to link play, creating a box midfield but removing the central threat at the back. On the right, however, Kieran Trippier, Bruno Guimaraes and Jacob Murphy offer smoother combinations. As a result, the majority of their attacking play comes down the right side.
Guimaraes remains the conductor; his short, vertical passing and positioning between the lines keep Newcastle moving. But his influence can only go so far as the runners and quality of finishing around him have declined.
Too many crosses, not enough penetration
The data paints a clear picture: Newcastle crosses too much and finishes too little. They have attempted 198 crosses this season, the fourth most in the Premier League, but few of them have resulted in high-quality chances.
Without Isak’s penalty instinct, these deliveries often don’t meet anyone. Sure, Woltemade is a bigger threat from the air, but his preference for hanging on the edge of the area rather than attacking the box has made Newcastle’s attack predictable.
Their shot map is filled with low quality efforts from wide or busy positions.
Newcastle’s overall shot map and shot quality after nine Premier League games. Chart provided by State bomb.
How set pieces and pressure keep Newcastle afloat
Two things keep Newcastle’s attack from drying up completely.
Set pieces remain a strength.
They rank 4th in shots from dead-ball situations and 5th in expected goals (xG) from set plays, with 35% of their total xG coming from these situations. In an era where Premier League clubs are increasingly reliant on set pieces for marginal gains, Newcastle are at the top.Its insistence still causes moments of chaos.
They rank third in high turnovers and sixth in shots coming off those recoveries, according to elect. However, the absence of Isak’s killer instinct means that these chances often die before they become shots on target.
Newcastle’s defense remains elite
While their offense has faltered, their defensive numbers remain among the best in the league. They have conceded the third fewest shots and the second fewest non-penalty xG.
Howe’s aggressive, man-to-man pressing continues to suffocate opponents, with Newcastle leading the league in counter-pressing and regaining control in the opposition’s half.State bomb).
But that aggression comes with risks. Their 4-5-1 center block can be bypassed if teams find gaps between the midfield and defense. Both Brighton and Arsenal have exposed those transition spaces, taking advantage of Newcastle’s flat midfield line and lack of compactness when the press is broken.
Can Eddie Howe restore Newcastle’s attack?
Newcastle under Howe have built a reputation for floor-expanding football: well-drilled and difficult to beat, but limited if you discount the elite attacking quality. The loss of Isak, plus the PSR-driven sales of Elliot Anderson – who they are reportedly ready to resign – and Yankuba Minteh have left them stretched thin creatively.
Their attack is functional rather than fluid, relying on pressing traps and set plays rather than sustained possession or combinations through the middle.
Unless they find new ways to generate high-quality chances – whether that means quicker rotations in midfield, more runners from deep, or a change in the forward profile – their ceiling will be quite limited this season.
Yet their defensive solidity means they will never drift too far down the table. In a chaotic Premier League season, a top five finish and a place in the Champions League are still achievable.
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