2. Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers)
Matchup details:
For our next basket, we go to the Cavs-Blazers showdown at Rocket Arena and task Donovan Mitchell to start the scoring for the third time this season.
This year, the Cavs are winning the tip at a rate of 68.2%, even higher over their past seven games at 85.7%. During this period, Mitchell was the second most likely player to take the first shot at 28.6%, behind only DeAndre Hunter.
They face Portland, which has had first chances as a team just twice in the past two weeks.
Mitchell is the most likely to score first in this match at 15.0%, almost four percent higher than the next player.
Donovan Mitchell First Basket Odds: +420
3. Norman Powell (heat)
Matchup details:
- Teams: Heat vs. Mavericks
- Date: Wednesday December 3, 2025
- Time: 8:30 PM ET
- Location: American Airlines Center
Remark: Norman Powell was scratched tonight. If you haven’t already posted this round robin, we recommend Bam Adebayo as our next most likely scorer for Miami in this matchup.
Next we look at Normal Powell of the Miami Heat, who rounds out today’s Top 10 at 13.5%.
Powell has four first baskets in 17 games played this season, the most on the Heat, and takes the first shot of the game nearly 35% of the time, behind only Bam Adebayo who has just a few first baskets to show for it.
Miami has won the tip at a rate of 57.1% this season and four times in the past seven games. They’ll face the winning Mavs who have only tipped once in their past seven games, and their most frequent first shooter this season, Cooper Flagg, has scored zero first baskets.
Powell’s 13.5% probability puts him right with reasonable odds to get his fifth of the year.
Regular Powell First Basket Odds: +650
4. Kon Knueppel (Hornets)
Matchup details:
- Teams: Hornets vs. Knicks
- Date: Wednesday December 3, 2025
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
- Location: Madison Square Garden
We take a look at the Hornets rookie when Kon Knueppel and his team visit Madison Square Garden on Wednesday night.
Over the past two weeks, only four players have taken the first chance of the game more often than Knueppel, who has won a pair of first baskets in that span, bringing his season total to four.
He is regularly seen at the start of games and has shot first in 25% of games this season. They will face the Knicks who were below average at the opening tip and won 45% of the time on the season. three of which started shooting first at 11% or less.
At 12.5%, Knueppel is just outside our top 10 overall for the night and is the second highest in this game at completely fair odds.
Kon Knueppel First Basket Odds: +700
5. Desmond Bane (magic)
Matchup details:
- Teams: Spurs vs. Magic
- Date: Wednesday December 3, 2025
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
- Location: Kia Center
No team wins the opening tip more than Orlando this season and they will look to take advantage of a Spurs team that wins less than 50% of the opening tip without Wemby.
Over the past seven games, the Magic have won the tip 71.4% of the time, with tonight’s target, Desmond Bane, making the first shot and one first basket in four of those games.
Bane has a 12.3% chance of making the first basket, second-highest on the Magic behind Franz Wagner, who has only made the first shot in less than 10% of games this season.
Desmond Bane First Basket odds: +550
Dimers’ first basket picks today.
Betting strategy for the first basket
For bettors looking to maximize their edge without the all-or-nothing nature of a full parlay, the N.B.A First basket Round Robin remains one of the most popular strategies among Dimers Pro members.
By combining multiple First Basket picks into a Round Robin of 2-, 3-, 4- or 5-leg combinations, bettors can secure payouts even if only some of the picks hit, while still leaving the door open to a huge win if multiple selections match.
This approach fits perfectly with the probability edges of the Dimers model and is a core part of our recommended betting strategy for each slate.
Why Dimers Pro members have an advantage
Along with the daily First Basket picks, Dimers Pro members received:
Extensive NBA First Basket rosters with up to 35 players per roster
Exclusive probability charts and matchup notes
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If you’re serious about betting on the NBA First Basket, joining the Pro Community will give you more data, more angles, and more odds every day of the season.
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