The days are getting noticeably longer, writes Tony Stafford. We’ve already recovered three and a half hours of daylight from the stingy spells of midwinter, and Cheltenham starts tomorrow. In other words: 2026 starts now.
Two septuagenarians, Messrs. Henderson and Mullins, have been the main forces at the meeting for decades, and neither is willing to lie down, as the opening day entries show, but the likes of Dan Skelton, Ben Pauling and Olly Murphy on this side of the Irish Sea, and the determined Gordon Elliott, Willie’s Irish shadow for the past decade and more, as well as Gavin Cromwell and Henry de Bromhead, will be ready if either of them drops from his usual exalted position. excellence.
Not everything will be the same. For the first time since 2011, Henderson will not be represented in the Champion Hurdle, a race he has won nine times. In the competitive absence of the questing, flat nine-year-old Constitution Hill and the injured Sir Gino, he can instead watch with pride as the former graces the paddock before the race we thought he might win three or even four times before injury and a strange later aversion to jumping at racing speed took over.
Mullins has three chances, mainly with the mare Lossiemouth, who has fallen into favoritism in recent days. Less obvious are Poniros, last year’s surprise Triumph Hurdle winner, and Anzadam, runner-up in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle to Golden Ace at the end of last year.
Two more from Ireland, third favorite and more modestly from Lossiemouth last time, Brighterdaysahead (Gordon), and Workahead (Henry). Perhaps this 66/1 shot isn’t a viable contender, but Henry De Bromhead is certainly entitled to another crack after winning the race in both 2021 and the following year with Honeysuckle.
That great course specialist, along with the now retired Rachael Blackmore, came back to win the Mares race as a career final in 2023, wisely bypassing Constitution Hill when Nicky’s phenomenon was at its peak.
It wasn’t feasible either, we thought before Jeremy Scott’s Golden Ace struck last year after Constitution Hill’s early departure and especially State Man’s final fall, when Mullins’ 2024 hero seemed certain to get a sequel. He is also missing this year due to an injury.
We’ve been waiting for something to emerge where I didn’t know, so now that all the trials and tribulations are behind us, we’re left with The New Lion, worthy, reliable, on par with his trainer Dan Skelton, on course for a final fee of over £4 million for the season.
The New Lion, winner of last year’s Turners novice hurdle over 2m5f, could have returned with a clear career record, but it is now five from six after being the second fall man (along with Constitution Hill) in Golden Ace’s success at Newcastle, secured at another huge price.
Skelton’s big hope seemed to be to win the race on his first start since March last year when he fell late, forcing Golden Ace to hold off Mullins’ Anzadam. The New Lion took his time to defend himself in what ended up being a penalty on Trials Day at Cheltenham, but he comes here with the right profile. Brighterdaysahead’s dominant performance against Lossiemouth at the Dublin Racing Festival has apparently not been taken seriously by the market, probably due to her capitulation last March.
The three most powerful stables of the two countries are therefore central this season. Their results for the domestic campaign are remarkably similar, numerically and in monetary terms. Skelton’s inexorable rise to the premier trainers’ championship cannot be tampered with this time, even if Mullins wins every race he enters this week, makes the ten paying positions in the Grand National and takes all the other major prizes there and at Ayr and Sandown next month.
Skelton is listed at £3,462,000, a full £3,160,000 more than Mullins. Even if Willie were to match last year’s four daily Cheltenham takeaways of £267,000, £245,000, £243,000 and a final £475,000 respectively – including the Gold Cup – that would amount to ‘only’ £1,230,000. I also doubt Dan will be on vacation for the last seven weeks of the season.
I like to look at stats in my usual off and on mode. Which of Mullins and Elliott do you think is the leader in the prize money table in Ireland? As is often the case at this stage, and sometimes even later, it’s Elliott. It took 305 individual horses and 1,002 runs, including 164 winners, to earn €4,340,000. Mullins, much more frugal with runs from his 274 individual horses, has won 161 of 661, making 500 losers for €3,963,000. I wonder how many of them were tested [55 odds-on losers from 127 – Ed.]
Over the past two weeks, Mullins has won with 13 of 35 runners, producing the same number of odds-on shots in that time. Tomorrow, Mullins and Elliott will have almost half of the 45 Irish-trained runners on the opening day card. The home side have 67, with Henderson making an early start with favorite Old Park Star (Supreme) against Mullins’ Mighty Park (JP McManus), before Lulamba came on against Willie’s favorite and last year’s Supreme winner Kopek Des Bordes in the Arkle, with another mare Kargese backing up the Irishman in a great seven-horse line-up.
Gary and Josh Moore were the stars of Saturday’s Sandown card, and their Hansard is worthy of his place against better-publicised opponents. Add to that Sam Thomas’s Steel Ally, who rejected Ben Pauling’s candidate and once again opposed Mambonumberfive when they met in Kempton, and it’s a heady mix.
Lulamba won the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury despite clear signs of inexperience and that was never the case with Steel Ally at Kempton. In three runs over obstacles he has won with increasing ease and he has the sexiest French jumping pedigree of Doctor Dino out of a mare by Martaline. At 12/1 it’s worth a second look.
When I looked at the Racing Post last Wednesday to check if I was still alive, I was described as Tony Stafford – former tipster for the Daily Telegraph, or was it a journalist? My memory! Anyway, I’m still here, and I think in the first race, reviving my old role as tipster, I’m looking for Elliott to disappoint both Henderson and Mullins with El Cairos.
Last season he did very well with Gary and Josh Moore when ridden as an amateur by then owner David Maxwell and sold to the owner for £410,000. The Moores will not be surprised by the talent he shows over hurdles, stumbling and falling unluckily during the run-up when he led on debut and was an easy winner from a Mullins horse last time. No doubt Gary wishes he still had him for training.
For value bet number three we go with Faye Bramley’s Winston Junior – no, not named after Sir Keir – winner of his last of three runs at Ascot in scintillating front-running style. His owners may give an idea as to why he is 8/1 in a huge field for what deserves to be forever known as just the Fred Winter, regardless of whoever adds his name to it.
The trio of connections – Ronnie Bartlett, Justin Carthy (JP’s partner) and Mrs. Paul Shanahan (and her husband, of course) – know how to field a winner, no matter which stable their horses run at.
Just as I stopped watching, a name from a year or so ago caught my eye. Walking On Air started life in Nicky Henderson’s stable and ran very well in bumpers in Mrs Doreen Tabor’s colours. He did not always fulfill the promise from those early days and since the end of 2024 there have been various ownership combinations next to his name, including Justin Carthy and Mrs Shanahan.
Now it is the Cheeky Pups and again trainer Faye Bramley, a protégé of AP McCoy, who trains him. The nine-year-old’s last run was a close third behind Geegeez’s Dartmoor Pirate in the Great Yorkshire Chase at Doncaster last month.
I mentioned the French top breeding before. The pedigree of Walking On Air has some knocks. He is the runner-up in Michael Tabor’s Derby, the beautiful showjumper Walk in The Park, out of his smart long-distance mare Refinement. It’s 18 years since I watched on the big screen alongside Harry Taylor in the Cheltenham paddock as Refinement came close to the front in the David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle.
Just before the line I turned to Harry and said, “She won!”
With his eyes still on the screen, Harry said, “She hasn’t!” and she hadn’t, leaving Whiteoak short-headed. She had one more run, another second place to Jonjo O’Neill and AP McCoy in Ireland, and then retired.
I asked Michael if she wanted to breed. “I’m sending a show jumping mare to stud? How old would I be before she got a runner?” Well, Michael relented and Refinement produced four great jump winners, including Walking On Air. A shot of 12/1 for tomorrow and also from the Bramley yard he can make it a memorable afternoon for his young trainer.
– TS
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