11:37 am: The top free agent of the offseason is still unsigned with about a month to go until pitchers and catchers report for spring training. Some recent reports, including from Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radiohas suggested the Blue Jays, Dodgers and Mets are the top candidates Kyle Tucker at this point. All three recently met with Tucker, either in person or via Zoom, according to Duquette. Will Sammon of The Athletic reports today that the Mets are about to offer him $120 million to $140 million on a three-year deal. Sammon says the Mets could go higher and Tucker could make a decision as soon as this week.
At the start of the offseason, MLBTR projected that Tucker would be guaranteed $400 million on an 11-year deal. That would be $36.36 million in terms of average annual value, which would pay him from age 29 through his age 39 season. That would be in line with other big deals for star-caliber position players.
In the past decade, eight position players have signed for nine years or more: Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper, Corey Seager, Manny Machado, Trea Turner And Xander Bogaerts. Ohtani received an AAV of $70 million, but with a significant deferral, bringing the net present value closer to $45 million. Soto got $51 million and judge $40 million. The others were in the $25-35 million range.
It’s unknown what the Blue Jays or Dodgers are willing to offer Tucker, but he remains unsigned until mid-January, meaning he hasn’t yet received an offer compelling enough to put pen to paper.
In recent years, it has become a standard move for a free agent in a disappointing market to move to a short-term pact with high AAVs and opt-outs. Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman And Pete Alonso have taken this path in recent years. Everyone in that group, except Alonso, signed a three-year contract. Bregman’s was technically $40 million per year, but delays brought the NPV to $30 million. Correa had an AAV of $35.1 million, Bellinger $26.7 million and Chapman $18 million. Alonso’s two-year contract had an AAV of $27 million.
The plan in that case is to put a decent amount of money in the bank before attempting free agency again. The hope would then be to have better luck finding a long-term contract with a better platform season and no longer be tied to qualifying offer penalties. A player can only receive a qualifying offer once in his career. Tucker just turned down a QO from the Cubs and whoever signs him now will be subject to the associated penalties.
This does not always work, but in many cases it does. Chapman ultimately signed a $151 million extension with the Giants just before returning to free agency. Correa would get a $325 million deal from the Giants. Concerns about his physical condition put a strain on that, but he still got a $200 million guarantee from the Twins. This winter, Alonso got $155 million from the Orioles. Bregman just received $175 million from the Cubs, but postponements have put the cash value somewhere in the neighborhood of $150 million.
There is also a demand on the team. They have to pay a premium salary and usually lose a draft pick or two, and maybe some international bonus pool space, but they avoid a long-term commitment. Since players generally decline in productivity as they age past 30, it’s understandable that a team would try to avoid height.
Sammon doesn’t mention opt-outs in his piece on the Mets’ offer, but that would likely be part of it. From Tucker’s perspective, he’s a few seasons behind with injuries, but he’s still relatively young and entering his age-29 season. A three-year contract with no opt-outs would see him return to free agency before his age-32 season, while opt-outs would allow him to re-enter the market more quickly.
Whether he and his representatives have any appetite for that kind of path is unknown. It might be worth mentioning that the five guys mentioned above who signed short-term deals were all Boras Corporation customers. He’s also gone that route with pitchers like Blake Snell, Carlos Rodon And Jordan Montgomery. Tucker is not a Boras guy as he is represented by Excel Sports Management.
Maybe Tucker would consider a short-term pact, but that also depends on what the other offers are. There is speculation that the Dodgers would also prefer a short-term deal. They could use an outfield upgrade, but their roster is one of the oldest in the league and they have a lot of good outfield prospects. These prospects don’t provide immediate help, as most of them only recently reached the Double-A level or didn’t even make that run at all. A short-term deal for Tucker could allow them to upgrade on the grass until those younger guys become more viable big-league players.
There is speculation that the Jays might be more willing to make a long-term deal. They signed recently Kazuma Okamoto but a week ago it was reported that they are still aggressively pursuing Tucker even after landing Okamoto. Toronto has spent this winter aggressively after reaching the World Series in 2025. They indicated a nine-figure deal Dylan stopsthen eight-figure deals Cody Ponce, Tyler Rogers and Okamoto. That has pushed their payroll to new heights, but that could be a byproduct of their deep run last year.
There’s also a lot of money coming off the books after 2026, like George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Yimi Garcia, Daulton Varsho And Eric Lauer are impending free agents. Myles Straw would also leave if his club option is rejected and Jose Berrios can back out of his deal. That could prompt the Jays to be doubly aggressive now while they still have all that talent on the roster.
Next winter doesn’t really have any Tucker-level talent and will likely be disrupted by the lockout as well. If Tucker were to sign a short-term deal, he could be the top free agent again in a year, but would also be entering the lockout winter. A long-term pact would keep him away from the disruptions that will occur a year from now.
The Mets apparently prefer to avoid long-term pacts at this point. Since David Stearns became president of baseball operations, they have made an exception for the 26-year-old Soto, but otherwise have not signed a contract longer than three years.
However, they definitely need help in the outfield. They acted Brandon Nimmo to the Rangers for Marcus Semien. They currently have Soto in a corner and Tyrone Taylor in the middle. Expectation Carson Benge could grab an opening day job, but he can play center. If Tucker was brought in to take one corner and Soto the other, Benge and Taylor could have a spring battle for the midfield gig. If Taylor were to win, Benge could get more Triple-A reps. If Benge were to win, Taylor could become a fourth outfielder.
Financially speaking, there is no real limit to what they can do. Owner Steve Cohen has shown a willingness to build the Mets to the highest payroll in the league. They’ve had a pretty modest offseason, defined more by subtraction than addition. They sent Nimmo and Jeff McNeil while we also include Alonso and Edwin Diaz sign elsewhere.
Grid source projects them for a payroll of $295 million and a competitive balance tax number of $296 million. Those are big numbers, but the Mets finished 2025 at $340 million and $337 million in those categories, respectively. Paying Tucker something between $40 million and $47 million annually would get them back to where they were last year.
It would also likely do a lot to quell the fan base, who are currently unhappy with the famous faces who have left in recent months. It would also prevent them from adding another big salary to the long-term books since they are already set to pay Soto Francisco Lindor huge annual amounts until 2039 and 2031 respectively.
Photo courtesy of David Banks, Imagn Images
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