Maruti Suzuki Q1 Preview: Profit can dive 16% yo -yy on weak volumes, margin printing

Maruti Suzuki is expected to publish a modest set of figures for the first quarter of FY26, with profit after tax (Pat) that will probably fall 16% on an annual basis, according to the average estimates of six brokers. Turnover is expected to be only 2% higher than the period from a year ago, weighed by muted domestic volumes and an adverse product mix.

The largest maker in the country of the country had reported a strong quarter of March with various one-off costs, but those reversations in the first quarter may not be enough to compensate for the impact of lower sales volumes and margin compression this time.

Weak volume show, Export mix rise exhibit

Brokers noted that volumes grew by only 1% in the quarter, with total shipments that were around 528,000 units. Although the export contribution last year rose to approximately 18% from 13.5%, the share of UVs fell by a higher marginal to 30.7% of 31.3%, according to motorbike Oswal.phillip Capital and Yes Securities also marked the consecutive decline in Volumes-axis than 12%. The domestic volumes fell 17% quarterly on quarter, although the export offered a pillow, with 14% in the same period.

Margins under pressure despite the reversing of one -off

Most brokers expect the EBITDA margins to stay flat or contract on an annual basis. Nuvama anticipates a fall in the gross margin, resulting in Ebitda -marge compression. Motilal Oswal Pangs the EBITDA margin at 10.5%, a decrease of 220 basic points Yoy, with stable QoQ performance. Phillip Capital attributes The Steady Marge for a recovery of Q4-one-offs such as CSR and advertising expenditures, the negative impact of a lower scale, full-quarter Kharkhoda plant costs, and a higher part of the low Margin exports. Marge at 10.9%, about 170 basic points yoj, but slightly better successively.

Botteling to display the operational weakness

On the net profit, Motilal Oswal expects a steep fall of 19% yoj in pat, while yes, securities predicts a decrease of 9.5%. The consensus average points to a fall of 16% in the Q1 income on YOY -Basis.

Investors will keep a close eye on management commentary on demand trends, the national recovery story and timelines for new modeling in the rest of the tax.

With a relaxation of the costs and one-off disadvantage, the coming quarters can see some revival but Q1 is expected to reflect a cooling-off period after a strong FY25 finish.

((Indemnification: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions of the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of economic times)