There’s also a Bob Baffert-trained California interloper to consider #2 Litmus testwho hasn’t raced since winning the Los Alamitos Futurity in December, and another highly touted Derby prospect in #4 Blackout time. That colt is trained by Ken McPeek and will be ridden by Brian Hernandez Jr., winners of the 2024 Kentucky Derby with Mystik Dan. Blackout Time hasn’t happened since Oct. 4, when he finished second behind 2025 2-year-old champion male Ted Noffey and 2 ¼ lengths ahead of the Litmus Test in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland.
Blackout Time (9-5) and Litmus Test (7-2) are the two favorites on the Rebel Stakes morning line, partly because of their high speed figures at 2 years old and also because they kept good company with the currently sidelined Ted Noffey. However, I’ll take a stance against both in the Rebel, and instead put my bankroll behind the two previous Oaklawn stakes winners and a few prospects I think are on the verge of a breakout: #3 Class President And #8 Rancho Santa Fe.
Class President enters from Gulfstream Park, where he won first in late December by running a one-turn mile, following the pace, pausing for a moment behind the leaders entering the course, then finishing with interest. Todd Pletcher’s trainee then finished second to the 1-5 favorite Solitude Dude in the seven-furlong Swale Stakes at Gulfstream. Solitude Dude will compete in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, and third-place Hammond will compete in Saturday’s Gotham Stakes, a Kentucky Derby points race at Aqueduct. I will keep a close eye on how both horses perform and adjust my betting support for Class President accordingly. This Uncle Mo colt has rising speed figures and was bred to thrive while racing around two turns. One of the best jockeys in history, John Velazquez, travels with him from Florida to ride. He’s 10-1 on the morning line and will be my winning bet in the Rebel… unless both Swale runners flop on Saturday.
My other valuable play is Rancho Santa Fe, who returns in the Rebel after finishing fourth in the Southwest Stakes, which Silent Tactic won going away. Three other horses gathered behind him and Rancho Santa Fe settled for fourth place, a head behind #10 Soldier N Diplomatwho also returns in the Rebel, and a nose behind Buetane. Unlike Soldier N Diplomat, who was tiring in the southwest and just finished second, Rancho Santa Fe seemed to have plenty left at the finish, and the Tapit colt is also bred to enjoy longer distances. This 12-1 morning pick from the stable of Brad Cox will also have the services of 2025 winnings leader Irad Ortiz Jr. in the saddle as Flavien Prat rides the Litmus Test.
As for Strategic Risk, I expect him to bounce back from a confusing no-show in the Southwest Stakes and come at least somewhat close to his standout performance in the Smarty Jones Stakes, with juicy 12-1 odds on the morning line. Silent Tactic was something to behold in the south-west, closing in at a moderate pace and flying down the field in the stretch to score by 3 ¼ lengths. I expect his odds on the morning line of 9-2 to drop over time, but his recent win was so impressive that I have to include him in my Rebel betting.
I’m betting on the Rebel this way, with a $30 budget and usage ABR’s betting calculator:
$12 win on #3 Class President
What to say during the betting window:
Oaklawn Park, Race 11, $12 win #3
$1 exacta: #3 Class President and #8 Rancho Santa Fe of #3 Class President, #6 Strategic Risk, #7 Silent Tactics and #8 Rancho Santa Fe ($6)
What to say during the betting window:
Oaklawn Park, Race 11, $1 exacta, #3 and #8 with #3, #6, #7 and #8
50-cent trifecta box: #3 Class President, #6 Strategic Risk, #7 Silent Tactic and #8 Rancho Santa Fe ($12)
What to say during the betting window:
Oaklawn Park, Race 11, 50-cent trifecta box, #3, #6, #7 and #8
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