Bubic, 28, didn’t find much success in his first few major league seasons. He added a slider in early 2023 and appeared to be on the cusp of a breakout, but that only lasted three starts before he needed Tommy John surgery.
He missed the rest of that campaign and worked his way out of the bullpen when he returned in 2024, but to great success. He gave the Royals 30 1/3 innings with a 2.67 earned run average. His 32.2% strikeout rate, 4.1% walk rate and 56.2% groundball rate were all excellent numbers. He also posted a 1.93 ERA over four postseason appearances.
The Royals stretched him again in 2025. He wasn’t as dominant as he was as a reliever in 2024, but his results were still quite good. He logged 116 1/3 innings over 20 starts with a 2.55 ERA, a 24.4% strikeout rate, an 8.2% walk rate and a 47.2% groundball rate. A rotator cuff strain put him on the injured list at the end of July and missed the final two months of the season. At the time of that injury, it was reported that he would not require surgery and would have a normal offseason. According to the MLB.com injury trackerhe was recently cleared to resume throwing.
Thanks to the slow start to his career and absences due to injuries, his success hasn’t been huge, but he has shown some very intriguing positive moments. His winding journey also means he is now just a year away from free agency and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz at a salary of $6 million. That’s pretty modest by modern pitching standards, especially compared to what the top free agents are likely to get this winter. For example, the best pitcher on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list was Dylan stops. He was expected to earn $189 million over seven years, or $27 million per year.
The Royals want to strengthen their offense, especially in the outfield and second base. However, they probably don’t have much financial wiggle room. They tend not to be big spenders, and owner John Sherman recently stated that the payroll would likely remain fairly flat compared to 2025. Grid source They are currently projected to have a payroll of $142 million in 2026, a tad higher than the $138 million they had at the end of 2025.
Trading some pitching is probably the best way for the club to add offense. Their expected rotation currently includes Bubic, Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Noah Cameron, Stephen Kolek, Ryan Bergert, Luinder Avila, Ben Curly and others. Sammon reports that Ragans will likely be unavailable. That’s not surprising considering he has three seasons left in control. Even if the Royals were motivated to move him, this wouldn’t be a good time as he’s coming off a poor and injury-marred season. Wacha and Lugo recently signed extensions, each signing through 2027 with club options for 2028.
That leaves the most likely trade candidates as Bubic or one of the younger and more controllable weapons. The Royals might consider moving one of the other guys, but they are cheap and have options, making them valuable pieces for a club without huge payroll capacity. Bubic’s value will be somewhat limited by the fact that he only has one year under control and poor health on his record. However, the salary is attractive to other clubs and could allow the Royals to save some money for other pursuits.
As Sammon notes, another thing working in the club’s favor is that many other lead pitchers are seemingly unavailable. Recent reports have downplayed the trade opportunities for guys as Pull Skubal, Paul Skenes, Hunter Greene, Freddy Peralta, Joe Ryan And Pablo Lopez. It’s probably still reasonable to expect from guys MacKenzie Gore, Son Gray and others to be there, but every name that comes off the board gives the Royals a little more leverage.
Since Bubic only has one season left under control, he should only attract interest from clubs planning to compete in 2026. That could make it challenging for the Royals to reach a deal, as those clubs likely won’t want to make meaningful cuts to their big league rosters. It’s not impossible, however, as clubs like the Angels and Red Sox have plans to compete, have a need for pitching, but also have too many corner outfielders.
If the Royals can’t pull off a classic “baseball trade” like that, they can still flip Bubic for prospects. That could increase their ability to trade prospects for an impact bat or two, either by moving prospects they just acquired or guys they already had who have been made more expendable by the newcomers.
Presumably the Royals are currently evaluating all kinds of scenarios. As mentioned, they could move a cheaper and more controllable arm like Cameron, Bergert, Kolek or others in that camp, but Bubic is an intriguing asset for competing clubs. There are risks associated with the recent injuries, but Bubic is much cheaper than the options available in free agency and does not require a long-term commitment. It’s also possible he could recoup a draft pick down the road, if he stays healthy and pitches well enough in 2026 to warrant a late-season qualifying offer.
Photo courtesy of Sam Navarro, Imagn Images
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