If the real estate market of 2025 will be remembered at all, it might be something I call:The great realization.”
Let me explain…
In January we had a listing in Leslieville which was a fantastic first time freehold property for which the target market was couples in their mid to late twenties.
As usual, we organized an open house on Saturday and Sunday and that was absolutely the case hit. Without exaggeration I would say we had a total of fifty groups through the house.
Tara was working the open house on Sunday and sent me a photo with the caption: “This kind of sums it up.”
Here is the photo:
I thought she meant, “That about sums it up” in terms of the open house hit!
But what she meant was further clarified during our team meeting on Monday:
“Everyone who attended the open day was young, carefree and unique. They were all unique. Except, well, they all were identical because they said the same things, acted the same way, and they ALL wore the same shoes.
This photo was actually an advertisement for Blundstone’s.
The conversations among the young buyers were all the same: they were looking for an entry-level property in Leslieville and Than sell their apartments.
Both Tara and Chris, who worked the open house on Saturday, addressed attendees and offered, “The apartment market is pretty tough out there,” but the buyer pool continually shut them down.
Why?
Because their apartment was special.
‘You should see it Mine place,” someone would say.
“Mine condo is different,” the next one would say.
The view, the terrace, the kitchen, the building amenities – every young person who visited our Edwardian semi-detached villa in Leslieville treated Tara and Chris to how their apartment would have no problem selling because of how unique it was.
Fast forward a few months, and I’ve listed an absolutely beautiful hard loft in an iconic downtown Toronto building, and I’m having trouble getting showings. Not one offerbut rather displays in general.
At this point I said to my team, “If this were 2022, we would have seventeen listings on this place. If we can’t get showings on this unit, then that speaks volumes about the apartment market in 2025.”
What does this story have to do with the wimpy youth and their Blundstones?
It underlines how difficult the apartment market has been this year. If I can’t move an A++ apartment, what chance do these young people have of moving their unspectacular units to street names so new you’ve never heard of them?
As the year progressed, these wishful warriors began leaving the market en masse.
What took place was something called “The Great Realization.”
They realized that they cannot go out and buy a house, Than turn around and sell their apartments.
It has been that way for two decades.
Condos were easy to sell. Start looking for a house, buy it tight, get a sixty day closing date, then sell your condo and set the closing dates accordingly.
And voila!
Only it would be a nightmare to do that in 2025 as there is no guarantee that you will be able to sell your apartment, and in fact I would be offering a high price. probability you don’t.
In April or May I started receiving offers on our properties from young people who had sold their apartments First.
Smart as hell.
But alone some people were doing this. Many others continued to prowl the city, in and out of open houses, thinking they could look for freehold land. First.
It’s a recipe for disaster, and I can’t imagine the stomach ulcers these people will get as they stare at the clock and watch it run out, trying to sell their apartment as the closing date on the property they bought quickly approaches.
I’m not sure if all of this will be reflected in the updated condominium statistics, but let’s keep that in mind as we scroll through.
First, let’s look at new entries in the 416:
During the first half of the year, we saw record activity in January, February and March, while April, May and June all lagged behind 2024.
In the third quarter we saw July and September 2024 follow, but August exceeds the figures of the same period last year.
We’ve come a long way since January, as the chart below clearly shows:
The number of new listings in January increased by no less than 32.9% compared to January 2024.
That was a huge concern, and I specifically remember having this conversation on TRB.
This trend continued through the remainder of the first quarter, but believe it, it has since reversed:
For the record, we saw 29,274 new listings from January through September in 2024, and 29,907 during the same period in 2025.
That’s one 2.2% increase.
Ask the proverbial person on the street and I think he would believe that the stock in Toronto has skyrocketed!
But maybe that’s where the 416 and the 905 diverge?
Let’s see…
I immediately see a big difference: the quotations are higher in 2025 than in 2024 in January, February, March, April, May, June, July and August.
Not September.
But suffice it to say that there is a clear difference between new entries in the 416 and the 905.
The following graph illustrates this exceptionally well:
New entries are way in the 905!
How much are they for?
Let’s use the same diagram as for the 416:
Yes!
While we only saw a 2.6% increase in new listings in the 416 from January through September, we saw a whopping 17.8% in new entries in the 905.
Things have cooled off a bit since the first quarter, but we’re still on track to end the year with record numbers.
As for sales, let’s start again in the 416:
The turnover was down year after year in January, February, March, April, May and June upwards in July, but then back again in August and September.
All told, we’ve seen 8,250 sales so far this year, compared to 9,483 in the same period in 2024.
That’s one 13.0% reject.
Looking at the chart, the only conclusion I’ll draw here is that while sales are down, so is volatility:
Yes, that is a very flat line indeed!
Here’s where it gets more interesting!
We saw a huge difference between the 416 and the 905 when we looked at it new entries. As noted, new listings in the 416 are up 2.6% in the first nine months of the year, while new listings in the 905 are up 17.8%.
Should we assume that we will see the same difference regarding sale?
Here is our diagram:
We’ve seen 4,344 sales of the 905 so far this year, up from 4,966 in the same period in 2024.
That’s one 12.5% reject.
That’s one smaller decrease than the 13.0% we saw in the 416.
Wild!
As a result, the chart looks the same in terms of the less volatile green line:
Conclusion?
The sales in the 416 and the 905 are down of last year at the same pace, despite the fact that entries have increased more dramatically on the 905 than on the 416.
As a result, absorption rates are higher for the 416 than for the 905.
Here’s an update on the 416:
We saw one increase in the absorption rate in July and September, but not in August.
Overall, as you can see, the annual absorption rate of 27.9% in 2025 is a new low.
Look at the numbers going from left to right: 73.7% in 2021, down to 51.2% in 2022, down further to 44.2% in 2023, down to a terrible 36.3% in 2024, and finally plummeting to 27.9% in 2025.
If so each Positive to take away here: it is shown in the graph where the absorption rate in the third quarter is closer to 2023 and 2024:
For reference, here is the 905 dataset:
And while you may be tired of numbers, charts and graphs at this point, here is the 905 absorption rate over the past five years in a graph:
While we may see a parallel between the decline in sales for the 416 and the 905, the increase in inventory for the 905 is nevertheless a concern.
As for how this translates regarding pricethe average condo price fell into the 416s in September 3.8%year-over-year, and the average condo price in the 905 has declined 4.3%.
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