How off-market deals and investor demand are reshaping residential real estate

Converging forces are reshaping the industry

The real estate market is experiencing a once-in-a-generation disruption, driven by forces that are fundamentally reshaping the role of agents and brokers. Semi-private deal networks, a growing class of retail investors, regulatory shifts and increasing competition between online portals are creating an uncharted landscape

High mortgage rates and limited inventories have pushed existing home sales to nearly 30-year lows, forcing real estate agents to rethink traditional strategies. The number of new homes built in the U.S. fell 1.7% year over year for the four weeks ending December 7, 2025, the biggest drop in more than two years. Success now depends on navigating multiple listing service (MLS) transactions, working with investors, understanding evolving regulations, and adapting to the portal wars that are redefining the way buyers find homes. Alternative home ownership models (rent-to-own, shared ownership), non-bank financing sources and increasing liquidity for renovating existing homes for the rental market) continue to expand the touchpoints for both consumers and investors in the housing markets.

Off-market ecosystems change the playing field

A growing share of homes are sold outside the MLS in semi-private networks and niche marketplaces. Fix-and-flip operators, wholesalers, retail investors and specialty platforms are increasingly buying and selling homes through traditional channels, especially in the $100,000 to $300,000 range. This has intensified competition where first-time buyers have historically played, especially in the past two years after decades of ultra-low interest rates and loose credit standards.

We now see that buyers are no longer just homeowners. Fix-and-flip operators and institutional investors are increasingly competing to acquire properties that they can then rent out. While this helps address the housing shortage, it also makes it harder for first-time buyers to compete. These off-market ecosystems are not a reaction to market cycles, interest rates, or regulatory turmoil, but are now a permanent part of the landscape as investors of all sizes have provided a major boost to their existence.

Small investors are reforming ownership

In addition to off-market activities, a growing group of small investors are changing where capital comes from and how inventory flows. Realtor.com’s semi-annual update showed that 10.8% of homes sold in the second quarter were purchased by investors, with retail investors accounting for more than 62.5% of those purchases. Many of these buyers are assembling rental portfolios of 10, 20 or 100 homes, meeting the rising demand for rental properties driven by high construction costs and the limited availability of down payments.

Interest rates have had a greater impact on existing home sales than any other factor, but competition at the lower end of the market remains fierce. For agents and brokers who join fix-and-flip or investor groups, this creates a new source of transaction volume. While the mechanics of transactions are the same, the mentality is different: instead of helping someone buy a house, agents help investors execute a strategy. This represents a separate channel and not a distraction from the activities of traditional buyers.

Non-institutional (“retail”) investors have a wide range of resources to find distressed and/or off-market deals, such as BiggerPockets, HomeVestors, New Western, Roofstock and their own personal networks, which often include “traditional” agents with expertise and deep coverage of local markets. Tapping into all these resources has increasingly become a commitment to creating the deal flow necessary to build and maintain a portfolio of rental properties.

In recent weeks, President Trump’s administration has floated the idea of ​​limiting institutional purchasing and ownership of single-family homes as leverage to address affordability concerns. In short, the idea certainly has industry participants on edge, in part because of the amount of investment capital and human capital infrastructure dedicated to the single-family rental market. There is plenty of speculation about how this could or should be implemented (adverse accounting treatments, volume limits, giving individuals the right of first offer, etc.), but this will likely remain a hotly debated topic until 2026.

Regulatory and legal uncertainty

Changes in regulations and legislation have introduced a new layer of complexity. DOJ oversight, the changing role of the National Association of Realtors (NAR), and changing commission rules have affected real estate agents’ workflow. Although it was expected early on that changes in provision would dramatically change outcomes, the impact was more modest. Transaction dollars have largely moved rather than disappeared, and interest rates remain the main driver of activity.

The early uncertainty in 2025 has given way to greater clarity, and once the rules are understood, market activity tends to follow predictable patterns. Looking ahead, the bigger challenges for housing markets are affordability and availability, rather than agent compensation. Zoning restrictions, multifamily boundaries and vacant properties have a greater impact on supply than changes in commissions.

In the wake of the DOJ settlement, the buyer commission negotiations and disclosure created significant but ultimately short-lived chaos for agents and buyers. As the industry navigated how both conversations and processes needed to change, clarity emerged and both buyers and sellers adapted; Buying a home is still an important, stressful transaction, and transparency has benefited the market in several ways.

Competition on portals is increasing

Competition between Zillow, Realtor.com and Homes.com has become increasingly fierce as each platform competes for market share through marketing, agent strategies and technology, all of which have created a “portal war” for consumer attention and listing data. Homes.com, backed by CoStar, is positioning itself as a more transparent and affordable option for real estate agents and challenging Zillow’s long-standing dominance. While multiple portals could theoretically increase liquidity and transparency, measuring their impact is difficult when transaction volumes are down 20 to 30 percent.

Overall, it remains a challenge to isolate what actually benefits agents or consumers when activity is slow.

Compass’ acquisition of Anywhere Real Estate for approximately $1.6 billion, which closed in early January, is an example of strategic mergers and acquisitions in the residential real estate brokerage industry as companies consolidate to defend their market share amid weak sales, regulatory uncertainty and competitive pressure from portals and technology models. In March, mortgage company Rocket Cos. agrees to acquire real estate brokerage Redfin Corp. with the aim of reshaping the way Americans buy, sell and refinance their homes. That same month, Keller Williams raised money from Stone Point Capital to arm it for expansion.

Implications for agents and brokers

The sector is starting to split. Agents can be bypassed in highly commoditized or investor-driven transactions, but they remain essential in complex, advisory deals. Brokers that diversify into marketplaces outside of MLS, partner with investor groups, or provide services such as renovation concierge programs or property management may remain front and center as these ecosystems mature. Investor-driven activities also impact affordability and inventory. As rehabilitation and fix-and-flip operations expand, older housing stock may be absorbed more quickly, requiring agents to advocate for policies that maintain access and boost supply.

Market share concentration among a small number of umbrella brands such as Compass, ReMax, Berkshire Home Services, and Keller Williams is in some ways a response to the democratization of housing data, increasing consumer demand for frictionless access to inventory, and the slow-moving but likely unstoppable impact of technology and AI on the way consumers interact with experienced real estate agents and brokers.

In conversations with PE and strategic investors, we have seen a growing number of brokers and teams/agents creating specific, targeted strategies for identifying and working with investors to acquire or divest single-family properties (whether as fix-to-flip or for rental purposes); Similar strategies are used to work with new construction developers, regardless of the end buyer’s purpose (ownership or as a rental unit). Agents and brokers with local market expertise can benefit from these multiple channels, provided they recognize that the way they go to market for each of these channels will likely require different marketing, process expertise and buyer connectivity.

Looking ahead

The real estate landscape is evolving rapidly. Off-market ecosystems, new investor classes, regulatory shifts, portal wars and split agent roles create both challenges and opportunities. Human expertise remains critical, with most buyers remaining dependent on agents or brokers. Success will belong to those who embrace change, leverage relationships and continually refine their value proposition. We believe that experienced, tech-savvy brokers and agents will increasingly capture market share from those who cannot or will not adapt. Furthermore, leveraging data to find opportunities for buyers, more accurately price and market homes for sellers, and reduce the administrative burden common to most transactions will be key to consumer satisfaction and sustainable incomes for real estate agents.

Brandon Dobell and Seth Rosenfield are Managing Directors at Brown Gibbons Lang & Company (BGL), where they lead the firm’s Real Estate Services and Technology investment banking team.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of HousingWire’s editorial staff and its owners. To contact the editor responsible for this piece: [email protected].

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