Owning Chelsea players has been a mixed experience in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) of late.
The final games of a supposedly ‘easy’ four-match series saw home draws against Leeds United and Burnley. No clean sheets for defensive players, one Enzo Fernandez (£6.8m) target, yet multiple clearances João Pedro (£7.7 million) and Cole Palmer (£10.6 million).
That’s why an upcoming match change feels like the right time to move from Liam Rosenior’s side, as shown in Gameweek 28’s top selling list (as of Wednesday afternoon).
But to play devil’s advocate, perhaps these names should be kept for a little longer.
FIXTURE TICKER
Whether it’s just Gameweek 28, from now to the end, or any length in between, our fixture ticker always puts Chelsea last because of the difficulty.
Particularly over the next six games, when they faced the top four, Champions League side Newcastle United and Everton, who have suffered defeat on five of their last seven occasions.
In this season’s reverse clashes, Chelsea defeated Everton, losing to Aston Villa and Manchester City, while drawing the other three.
CHELSEA DEFENDERS
When examining the attacks of these six opponents, Arsenal, Man City and Manchester United are in the top four this season in terms of goals and attempts. They are also the second best, behind Chelsea, in terms of expected goals (xG).
They make up the top three for shots on target (above), with Newcastle in sixth, Villa in seventh and Everton in 18th.
The Toffees are also fourth in goals scored, adding potential to the Blank Gameweek 31 match. So maybe Trevo Chalobah (£5.7 million) and Robert Sanchez (£4.9 million) could be held briefly.
On the other hand, Chelsea’s defensive standards have dropped recently. While they are generally among the best this season, their last six games have produced plenty of big chances (15, below) and shots on target (26).
It’s a decent sample size for the short term, with Villa struggling to score in the absence of some key midfielders. They have jointly scored the fewest big chances (seven), but are in the top seven for shots on target alongside Man United, Arsenal and Man City.
Everyone but Everton makes it into the top eight for shots (above). But the six are tight between fifth and fourteenth for recent xG.
CHELSEA ATTACKERS
In the meantime, these six backlines are worth reviewing. Arsenal are known for their generally mean defense and have gone down in three games in a row, meaning Aston Villa have suffered four league defeats in six games.
And Man United improved them as they limited big chances (six). A category where Villa, Man City and Everton also do well (below).
Four of these rank in the top five for short-term and full-season expected goals conceded (xGC). But Newcastle have allowed plenty of goals (12, below), shots on target (31) and big chances (19) recently.
Interestingly, all six are among the best of 2025/26 in at least one category. Arsenal, Man City and Man United are the leading trio when it comes to stopping attempts at goal. The first two, plus Villa and Everton, join Chelsea in the top five defenses when it comes to preventing goals, although David Moyes’ team tends to concede a lot of shots.
Newcastle are in the top four for deterring big chances (52, up), while Villa and Everton are not so good at that.
CONCLUSION
All things considered, it would be wise to stay out of the Blues’ defence. They have just failed to keep a clean sheet against West Ham United, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Leeds or Burnley, and are about to field three of the best attacks in the league.
Only Everton’s numbers are downright poor, but they do have a good record in the meeting on Merseyside.
Aston Villa has a low goal conversion rate (5.2%), but still shoots often.
However, owners could potentially keep hold of one of Chelsea’s strikers. After all, they have the best overall xG this season (52.30), and there is certainly nothing to fear against the backlines of Newcastle, Man City or Everton.
Even Arsenal’s defense doesn’t feel invincible right now, and Man United aren’t suddenly feared in any way.
On the other hand, we recently examined Palmer’s struggles against “big” teams. His open play numbers aren’t particularly good, suggesting the cheaper Enzo and Joao Pedro are the more sustainable assets.
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