Mortgage purchase application details
2026 has had the best start in years for application data buying, with multi-year highs in this index last seen in early 2023, when rates hit 5.99% before rising to 8% later that year. This year, however, conditions for mortgage rates are significantly different: the Fed has already cut rates substantially since 2023 and mortgage spreads are roughly back to normal. I expected a bigger hit in these numbers as rates edged higher last week and the massive winter storm hit two-thirds of the country, but we didn’t see much of a hit, with buying apps down 0.4% week over week and 18% year over year.
These applications typically provide a 30 to 90 day lead on sales data. Here’s 2026 so far:
- 2 positive results from week to week
- 0 negative prints from week to week
- 1 flat week-by-week printout
- Three weeks of double-digit year-on-year growth
Weekly ongoing sales
Weekly pending home sales provide a week-to-week perspective, although results can be affected by holidays and short-term fluctuations. Last week again showed positive growth, both week-on-week and year-on-year. I was really shocked by the growth here. Our weekly ongoing sales are very sensitive to holiday and weather-related impacts, but still had a positive week. These numbers typically appear in the existing home sales report, 30 to 60 days after pending sales are recorded.
Weekly open sales for the past week in past years:
- 2026: 57,865
- 2025: 56,270
10-year interest rate and mortgage interest rate
In the HousingWire forecast for 2026, I expected the following ranges:
- Mortgage interest between 5.75% and 6.75%
- The 10-year interest rate fluctuates between 3.80% and 4.60%
We’ve had a lot of economic drama lately, and the 10-year rate and the 30-year mortgage rate have done very little. There is little movement in mortgage rates, despite last week’s Fed meeting and the announcement of the new Fed chairman. Much of this stability is due to the fact that spreads are now close to normal. The 10-year yield was still near its monthly high last week.
Mortgage rates remained stable this week, ending at 6.16% Mortgage news daily. Considering the events of the past week, it was a very cold week. Mortgage rate closing data from Polly shows a weekend interest rate of 6.27%.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage interest rates have remained stable partly because mortgage spreads have improved significantly, especially at the beginning of this year. Better mortgage spreads were an incredibly important story in 2025, and that trend will continue in 2026.
Historically, mortgage spreads have ranged from 1.60% to 1.80%. Last week’s spreads closed at 1.86%. If spreads were to match the 2023 peak level, mortgage rates would be 1.25 percentage points higher, at 7.41%. Now that spreads are returning to normal, mortgage prices may remain lower for longer than in previous years.
Weekly home inventory data
Housing inventory growth in recent years has been the best overall story for the housing market; it has created a much more balanced and healthy market. Last year, inventory growth was at 33% year-on-year at one point, but the pace of growth slowed noticeably after mid-June as demand picked up. That said, we’re still seeing good inventory growth year-over-year.
- Weekly Inventory Change: (January 23 – January 30): Inventory has decreased from 697,868 Unpleasant 696,222
- Same week last year: (January 24 – January 31): Stock has fallen from 635,529 Unpleasant 634,936
New advertising data
The new advertising data for 2026 is encouraging, even with a decline last week. We want to get this line above 80,000 during the seasonal peak period and show some growth as most home sellers are also buyers. In a normal market, we would see 80,000 to 100,000 new listings per week during peak seasonal months. For context, during the housing bubble crash, the number of new homes added ranged from 250,000 to 400,000 per week for several years.
Here you will find the new advertising data for the past two years:
- 2026: 48,415
- 2025: 48,883
Price reduction percentage
Typically, about a third of homes experience price reductions, reflecting the dynamic nature of the housing market. As mortgage rates and inventories rise together, the percentage of price reductions will increase. However, interest rates are near multi-year lows, so what happens now to our markdown rates? After a very long time, we’ve seen our first slight year-over-year decline in our markdown rate data, which isn’t surprising given that inventory growth has slowed and demand has increased.
Last week’s price reduction percentage:
The coming week: Jobs Week!
It’s that time again: job week! Of course, I’ve always been convinced that the weaker labor market was the main reason mortgage rates fell last year. So we’ll have to keep an eye on all the labor data coming out this week and see how the bond market responds. The most important labor data line for me is unemployment claims, which remain historically low.
This week we will also have ISM data and Fed speeches, but it will mainly focus on jobs and the bond market’s reaction to them.
#Housing #demand #positive #epic #snowstorm