Weekly home inventory data
Inventory fell week over week, which isn’t a total surprise for last week, but the magnitude of the drop was notable, and I attribute this to the snowstorm as we saw a year-over-year decline in new listings data. Soon the impact of this storm will pass and we will get back on track. Inventory growth, which peaked at 33% in 2025, is now below 9% year over year. The year-over-year comps will become more difficult as we move into spring.
- Weekly Inventory Change: (January 30 – February 6): Inventory has decreased from 696,222 Unpleasant 687,697
- Same week last year: (January 31 – February 7): Stock has fallen from 634,936 Unpleasant 632,325
New advertising data
New listings data dropped slightly week over week but significantly year over year, but I attribute a lot of this to the weather. We should get back on track soon, and hopefully this year for the first time in a long time we’ll see the number of new listings exceed 80,000 during the peak seasonal months and show some growth. For context, during the housing bubble crash, the number of new homes added ranged from 250,000 to 400,000 per week for several years.
Here you will find the new advertising data for the past two years:
- 2026: 48,365
- 2025: 53,861
Price reduction percentage
Typically, around a third of homes experience price reductions before they are sold, reflecting the dynamic nature of the housing market. As mortgage rates and inventories rise together, the percentage of price reductions increases. However, interest rates are near multi-year lows, so what happens now to our markdown rates? After a very long time, we are seeing negative year-over-year price reductions, which should not be shocking as demand has picked up somewhat and inventory growth has slowed.
Last week’s price reduction percentage:
Mortgage purchase application details
Purchase requests have started the year solidly, showing stronger growth than I expected, but the snowstorm affected last week’s data line, causing it to drop 14% week over week, while it was only up 4% year over year. These types of large declines from week to week are something we would see if mortgage rates rose 75 basis points, but rates would remain stable so this is weather dependent. And we worked with purchasing apps from a higher level.
These applications typically lag sales data by 30 to 90 days. Here’s 2026 so far:
- 2 positive results from week to week
- 1 negative print from week to week
- 1 flat week-by-week printout
- Three weeks of double-digit year-on-year growth
Weekly ongoing sales
Pending home sales data provides a week-to-week perspective, although results may be affected by holidays and short-term fluctuations. Last week this data line was affected by the snowstorm and was negative week after week and year after year. Typically, pending sales appear in the existing home sales report 30 to 60 days later.
Weekly open sales for the past week in past years:
- 2026: 54,255
- 2025: 57,511
10-year interest rate and mortgage interest rate
In the HousingWire forecast for 2026, I expected the following ranges:
- Mortgage interest between 5.75% and 6.75%
- The 10-year interest rate fluctuates between 3.80% and 4.60%
Last week we faced another economic headwind, with several negative labor market reports, and we saw some movement in the bond market in 10-year yields, but little movement in mortgage rates. Interest rate volatility has decreased recently and we have not seen a significant spike in mortgage rates as in previous years. Furthermore, the 10-year yield is still within the low levels it has been at since September 2025, albeit near the highs of that range.
Once again we did not see much movement in mortgage rates last week. Interest rates ended the week lower at 6.15% Mortgage news daily and Polly’s mortgage rate data shows a weekend rate of 6.25%.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage spreads remain a positive story for residential construction in 2026, reducing mortgage rate volatility, and are close to normal levels.
Historically, mortgage spreads have ranged from 1.60% to 1.80%. Last week’s spreads closed at 1.84%. If spreads were to match 2023 peak levels, so would mortgage rates 1.27 percentage points higher, op 7.42%. Now that spreads are returning to normal, mortgage prices may remain lower for longer than in previous years.
Upcoming week: BLS Jobs report, Fed speeches and existing home sales
We’re in for a big week of data: the Jobs Friday report has been moved to this Wednesday, we get retail sales data, numerous Fed speeches, and the existing home sales report will now be reported earlier in the month. The Fed’s speeches will become increasingly interesting now that Kevin Warsh has been nominated as the next Fed chairman.
For the BLS Jobs report, keep an eye on wage growth and jobs revisions as most people don’t trust headlines much anymore. I think existing home sales data will be affected this week, not only because of the snow, but also because of the December holidays. We’ll have about two months of data that can show some snow impact there, and then we can go from there.
#Home #inventory #homes #show #impact #winter #weather