Following the retirement of reigning Horse of the Year, Thorpedo Anna, the 2025 Grade 1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff at Del Mar looks wide open with many viable winners.
Analyzing the last 20 years of Breeders’ Cup Distaff history reveals recurring trends and tendencies that we can use to sort through the contenders and determine the most likely winner.
Here are five angles to consider when handicapping the Distaff:
Late runners perform well
Many dirt races favor horses with early speed. The Breeders’ Cup Distaff is often an exception. Only two winners in the last twenty years (10%) have been in the lead after the first half mile, while 13 of the last twenty winners (65%) were running outside the top three at that point, including eight (40%) running no closer than sixth.
Year | Winner | Position after the first 1/2 mile | ½ mile and ¾ mile times (track condition) |
2024 | Thorpedo Anna | 1st per 0.5 lengths (7 starters) | 47.99, 1:12.01 (fast) |
2023 | Idiomatic | 2i.e per 0.5 lengths (9 starters) | 46.26, 1:10.16 (fast) |
2022 | Malathate | 7e with 2.75 lengths (8 starters) | 47.29, 1:11.95 (fast) |
2021 | Marche Lorraine | 9e per 10 lengths (11 starters) | 44.97, 1:09.70 (fast) |
2020 | Monomoy girl | 4e per 1.5 lengths (10 starters) | 46.03, 1:09.94 (fast) |
2019 | Blue prize | 8e with 6 lengths (11 starters) | 46.68, 1:10.83 (fast) |
2018 | Monomoy girl | 2i.e per 1 length (11 starters) | 47.57, 1:12.11 (fast) |
2017 | Forever unbridled | 6e per 4 lengths (8 starters) | 48.08, 1:12.50 (fast) |
2016 | Spectator | 3rd per 3.5 lengths (8 starters) | 47.16, 1:11.14 (fast) |
2015 | Stop charging Maria | 6e with 1.75 length (14 starters) | 47.28, 1:11.49 (fast) |
2014 | Untouchable | 6e with 4.5 lengths (11 starters) | 46.73, 1:10.95 (fast) |
2013 | Spectator | 3rd per 1.5 lengths (6 starters) | 46.30, 1:10.28 (fast) |
2012 | Royal Delta | 1st per 1 length (8 starters) | 45.81, 1:09.80 (fast) |
2011 | Royal Delta | 4e per 3 lengths (9 starters) | 49.00, 1:13.72 (good) |
2010 | Unparalleled Belle | 5e per 5 lengths (11 starters) | 49.09, 1:13.75 (fast) |
2009 | Life is sweet | 8e with 17.5 lengths (8 starters) | 45.78, 1:09.74 (fast) |
2008 | Zenyatta | 5e with 8.25 lengths (8 starters) | 48.08, 1:11.08 (fast) |
2007 | Ginger punch | 3rd per 2 lengths (12 starters) | 46.64, 1:11.11 (sloppy) |
2006 | Round pond | 4e per 2 lengths (14 starters) | 46.75, 1:11.59 (fast) |
2005 | Pleasant house | 12e with 7 1/4 lengths (13 starters) | 46.31, 1:10.74 (fast) |
Favorites and short-priced horses perform best
Favorites and short-priced horses have historically done well in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. The top betting pick has won 18 of 41 editions (44%), while horses starting at less than 6-1 have won 30 of 41 editions (73%).
Bet on proven Grade 1 winners
Mares and mares that previously won at Level 1 have been dominant in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, winning 17 of the last 20 editions. Additionally, two of the horses that bucked this trend (Unrivaled Belle and Pleasant Home) had finished second at Level 1 multiple times.
Prefer horses that have raced at Saratoga
It is common for mares and mares that competed at Saratoga to win the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Twelve of the last twenty Distaff winners (60%) competed at Saratoga at least once in the year of their Breeders’ Cup victory.
In particular, Saratoga’s Grade 1 personal flag deployment has been crucial preparation for the Distaff, which has produced five of the last thirteen winners (38%). This hot streak coincided with the shortening of the Personal Ensign from 1 ¼ miles to 1 1/8 miles (corresponding to the distance of the Distaff) from 2012.
To win, older horses have an advantage
Three-year-old fillies hold their own against older horses when it comes to earning top-three finishes in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Over the past twenty years, three-year-olds have represented 34% of Distaff starters and achieved 37% of the top three finishes.
However, three-year-olds have won only 25% of Breeders’ Cup Distaffs over the same period. Older horses have represented 66% of Distaff starters since 2005, yet they have achieved 75% of wins.
Conclusions
History shows that the most likely winner of the Breeders’ Cup is Distaff 2025 Dorth Vader.
There is a lot to like about the 5-year-old mare. For starters, she ran Saratoga twice this year. During the spring, she dominated the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps Stakes Presented by Ford by 4 ¾ lengths, securing her first win at the top level. In the summer she picked up the pace to finish second in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes, beating just a nose to 2024 Horse of the Year and reigning Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Thorpedo Anna.
Dorth Vader’s age, running style, experience at Saratoga and Grade 1 form are all attractive from a historical perspective. As long as she starts at less than 6-1 (and there’s a good chance she will), Dorth Vader will fit our profile perfectly as a typical Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner.
Good luck with your handicap and enjoy the race!
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