Gold prices climbed back above $4,000 an ounce this week, driven by escalating trade tensions between the US and China that roiled stock markets and renewed investor interest in safe-haven assets. The rally comes despite waning geopolitical concerns in West Asia, with market participants now closely watching US President Trump’s decision to impose 100 percent retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods from November 1.
“Gold prices climbed back above $4,000 an ounce, driven by renewed trade tensions between the US and China. These tensions roiled US markets and caused riskier assets to fall, overshadowing waning geopolitical concerns in West Asia,” said Aksha Kamboj, vice chairman of India Bullion and Jewellers’ Association and Executive Chairman of Aspect Global Ventures.
The precious metal is on track for its eighth straight weekly gain, supported by multiple factors, including the ongoing US government shutdown and concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve. “Gold is still on track for its eighth straight weekly gain. In the near term, the combination of declining geopolitical risks and a stronger US dollar may continue to put pressure on gold prices. However, any pullback is likely to attract buyers at lower levels,” said Darshan Desai, CEO of Aspect Bullion & Refinery.
Record inflows into gold ETFS
Indian investors have shown unprecedented interest in gold, with September data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) showing record inflows. Gold ETFs recorded their highest ever monthly inflows of nearly $900 million, pushing total assets under management above $10 billion. In rupee terms, gold ETFs added around ₹8,500 crore, taking the total assets under management above ₹90,000 crore.
“Gold ETFs saw their largest monthly inflows ever, nearly $900 million, pushing total assets under management above $10 billion – a clear sign that investors are seeking safety amid market uncertainty and global volatility,” said Nikunj Saraf, CEO of Choice Wealth.
The rise in investments in precious metals reflects a broader diversification trend among Indian investors. Silver ETFs also attracted a lot of attention, while multi-asset allocation funds saw inflows of nearly ₹5,000 crore, largely driven by gold and silver allocations. “Gold and other ETFs (including silver) have witnessed the highest net inflows (worth ₹16,000 crore) across all mutual fund categories. This appears to be driven by the significant rally in gold and silver prices YTD, reflecting a FOMO effect among retail investors,” said Naval Kagalwala, COO & Head of Products at Shriram Wealth Ltd.
Market experts attribute the continued demand to several global macro factors. “Anticipated rate cuts, persistent inflation, slowing global growth and ongoing geopolitical tensions are driving investors to safe-haven assets. New central bank investments in gold and silver, coupled with record flows in bullion ETFs, are further fueling this demand,” said Kartik Jain, MD & CEO, Shriram AMC.
Festive question
Looking ahead, domestic demand could get a boost from the upcoming Diwali festival. “Domestically, the upcoming Diwali festival could boost gold demand as festive buyers return to the market,” Kamboj added.
From a technical perspective, gold has support at $3,940-3,910, with resistance at $4,020-4,045, according to Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities at Mehta Equities Ltd. In terms of Indian rupees, gold has support at ₹1,19,870-1,19,280, while resistance is at ₹1,19,870-1,19,280. ₹1,21,850-1,22,400.
Published on October 11, 2025
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