For the first time since the seven-game slugfest that was the opening playoff series of the NHL’s 2024-2025 season, the Winnipeg Jets and St. Louis Blues will meet again Wednesday night when the franchises collide. I’m sure we all remember how we felt at that time Cole Perfetti draw Game 7 against the Blues with almost no time left on the clock (Fett’s celebration noted in the photo above), setting up captain Adam Lowry to score the eventual winning goal and the series-deciding goal in the 2nd overtime. And so it became Miracle in Manitoba. Ahh…good memories.
Unfortunately, none of the clubs’ fans will have collected many of those players from the start of the 2025-2026 season. The Jets are in action tonight (15-15-2) and blue (12-15-7) are on the outside of the playoff picture as the teams rank 6th and 5th among the worst records in the league. So less than a year removed from Winnipeg’s Presidents’ Trophy win and St. Louis being one of the best teams in the second half of the regular season…neither group has been able to build on that success this year.
The Blues are one of the worst teams at scoring goals this season (86) and that is very problematic because they allowed the most against (123). The Jets, on the other hand, are a mediocre club in both categories, tied for 20th with the most goals scored (98) and the 13th fewest goals conceded (99).
When you go to Money puck If you look at their data, you’ll find that they can confirm St. Louis’ difficulty in scoring goals, as they have it near the bottom in actual goal to expected goal percentage. Despite being the worst offensive team in the NHL at 5-on-5 (41.89% of goals scored), the underlying stats say they haven’t been as bad as the scoresheet indicates (48.45% expected goals) because they have the 24th best rating. Winnipeg has had a lot of success outscoring its opponents 5-on-5, finishing 12th (51.15% of goals scored). Still, the numbers suggest they shouldn’t be that adept in the category, as they rank 27th in expected goals (46.95%).
If your brain isn’t already full of stats, let’s look at a few more by checking out Winnipeg and St. Louis’ seasons via ESPN‘S comparison numbers of team and goalkeeper:
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Apart from the fact that the True Northers scored half a goal more and allowed half a goal less than tonight’s opponents… the rest of the columns are pretty close. That should be a problem for GM Kevin Cheveldayoff as the Blues begin a rebuilding/retooling movement and the Jets can’t use that same excuse.
Perhaps more worrying for hockey fans in the Great White North is the year in which Team Canada’s reigning starting goaltender could throw a wrench into their gold medal dreams. Jordan Binnington has saved the second worst goals above expectations with a rating of -9.8… but before you start dreaming about Winnipeg filling the net tonight, the only player worse than him held our club to 2 goals in our last defeat (the Sens’ Linus Ullmark).
We’re doing this preview very early today, so with pre-game skate hours ahead, we’ll see how PuckPedia The predicted line-up for tonight’s clash:
WINNIPEG JETS ALIGNING
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ST LOUIS BLUES LINE
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The Blues are in a lot of disarray at this point in the season, including key attackers Jimmy Snuggerud, Jordan Kyrou& Dylan Holloway. Good news for Winnipeg, who is relatively healthy, albeit a defender Haydn Fleury hasn’t played a game since suffering a concussion. The defenseman is skating with the team in practice, so I’m not sure if it’s due to the injury Logan Stanleys recent goal-scoring ability keeping him out. Did you know that Big Stan ranks fourth in goal scoring for our team this year? His six red lights are on, putting him level with attackers in four directions Nino Niederreiter, Vladislav Namestnikov& Alex Iafallo. Think about that for a moment….just Mark Scheifele (16), Gabriel Vilardi (16), & Kyle Connor (15) have scored more.
There’s not much else to say…the brothers Schenn meet again… possibly recently claimed winger Jonathan Berggren breaks in the Blues’ lineup? Winnipeg has three games left before Christmas Day… all against Central Division opponents. With the Utah Mammoth and Chicago Blackhawks dropping their recent games, the True Northers could use this stretch as a way to work their way back into a wildcard position. Right now, the 8th-place San Jose Sharks have a 5-point lead over our club, but they’ve played two extra games, so the gap may not be as wide as it seems.
Winnipeg has been playing better hockey lately…but to these old eyes they still look like a mediocre team with a solid goaltender giving them a boost. Maybe they can find a way to raise that level over the rest of the season… and getting the special teams back in order would be a big step forward. The number of failed power play attempts and shorthanded goals allowed in recent games have been a backbreaker for them.
Go Jets!!!!!
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AFTER-GAME INFO
Score overview: (courtesy of ESPN)
FINAL SCORE: St. Louis blues 1 Winnipeg Jets 0
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Game Statistics: (courtesy of MoneyPuck)
Expected goals (all): STL 4.04 WPG 1.78
Expected goals (5on5): STL 2.74 WPG 1.71
The top two lines played together for over 9 minutes, while the remaining three units were in the 6-7 minute range. The only goal against happened against the Scheifele line.
The best 2 pairs played for about 12 minutes and the Stanley–Schenn duo had about 7 minutes of ice time. The goal was conceded when the Morrissey–The Melo duo coughed up a turnover on defense.
Another WOW!!! outing for Hellebuyck, who was fantastic in this. The tender deserves a better effort in front of him… but I’m starting to think this group doesn’t have what it takes.
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BOJA’S thoughts after the game:
I don’t have much to say right now and think I’ll go to bed early tonight…as the coming snowstorm is just starting to hit the Peg and I’ll need plenty of energy to shovel in the morning. I may add some thoughts tomorrow morning when I have more time to review the data.
#Winnipeg #Jets #Louis #Blues