The Rays are weighing their shortstop options for 2026: Taylor Walls, Carson Williams or an outside stopgap to buy Williams more development time. I don’t think an external addition is necessary. Williams is ready for a full-time MLB role, and his 2025 season showed he has outgrown Triple-A and started adapting to Major League pitching.
His surface stats at Durham, which include a 34.1 K% and 98 wRC+, don’t scream ‘ready for promotion’, but they miss the real story. Williams already brings more speed and power with double-plus defense at SS; the only real question was his hit tool. His bat speed is plus, although his longer swing means he will always be somewhat susceptible to whiffs. Still, he improved from a 30 hitter to a 40 hitter in 2025, largely due to better pitch recognition.
His AAA data from his first few months to his last few months shows a clear adjustment (I chose 90 mph as the cutoff because that was about the average MLB fastball velocity in 2025):
This is a player who has solved Triple-A pitching as well as his skills will allow. Sending Williams back would simply produce a repeat of the mid-500s SLG and low 30s flavors he already demonstrated – not a meaningful development challenge. The only pitchers who can fuel his growth now are in the majors.
MLB struggles and real adjustments
Carson’s initial big-league line looks rough, but the underlying trends are more important than the specific small-sample numbers. His performance was divided into three different phases over approximately 106 PAs
He was passive at first, but he made solid contact and didn’t chase much. When the pitchers attacked the zone a little more, he was a little too aggressive and also not selective. His contact collapsed; Good players adapt, though, and Williams made some clear adjustments in his final third of games, staying aggressive but staying in the zone more and recovering some bat-to-ball ability as a result.
Carson’s first half of MLB PAs:
Carson’s second half of MLB PAs:
For Carson, the swing and miss will always be a feature and not a bug, but his adjustments – especially in pitch recognition – will allow his offensive skills to play in the Majors. These adjustments and trends are important; the data shows he’s acclimating, and that’s what you should see in a promoted prospect.
Average SS production as of 2010 hovers around 94-95 wRC+. Williams has the power to be close to league average as a rookie, and possibly above, even with swing-and-miss. His defense gives him a high floor, and his limited baseball experience (full-time baseball player and only exclusively SS after being drafted in 2021) suggests room for even more meaningful growth.
This winter’s free-agent SS class is weak and teams are generally unwilling to trade capable shortstops. Adding a veteran would cost financial or prospect capital without providing clear and significant upgrade value — and would delay Carson’s necessary MLB reps. It might be wiser to enter 2026 with Williams and Walls on the 26-man roster and let Kevin Cash make his decisions from there, but Carson Williams has nothing left to prove in Triple-A. His late-season MLB adjustments, defensive value, strength and improved plate skills make him the most logical and cost-effective Opening Day shortstop for the Rays.
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