Gemini draws Victor Caratini, Failed in the art of deception

‘I have spoken Byron [Buxton] and other players this offseason about ways we can improve as a team,” Twins President of Baseball Operations Derek Falvey told reporters in November at the GM meetings. The response was in response to a report that Buxton’s loyalty to the Twins might disappear if he felt they were embarking on a rebuild, as Minnesota’s behavior at last season’s trade deadline suggested. Falvey further emphasized that the team plans to add, not subtract, and it appears the term “rebuild” is taboo among Twins spokespeople.

Falvey lies. I say this without knowledge, malice, or even judgment. MLB organizations operate within a system where this particular lie is not only acceptable, but encouraged. Because “we’re not rebuilding; we’re trying to get better” is an outgrowth of a bigger lie – that all teams are doing their very best to win.

What is the truth but a lie that is agreed upon? — Friedrich Nietzsche

Although this quote is often attributed to him, Nietzsche never actually said it. However, it seems to offer a fairly accurate distillation of his beliefs. And if we all agree that he said it, then by his own logic it must be true. Likewise, teams have decided to stick to the line that they are all trying to win, and since they all agree, it is up to the fans to accept the lie as truth, along with any subsequent lies that go into supporting the original lie.

For example, to a former Twins catcher Christian Vazquez hit free agency after a 2025 season in which he and Ryan Jeffers distribute the time behind the dish fairly evenly, Falvey claimed that the plan going forward would be for Jeffers to take on a more full-time starting role Alex Jackson (recently acquired in a trade with the Orioles) serves as a more traditional backup. Instead, the Twins signed Victor Caratini to a two-year contract worth one total $14 million.

In all fairness, Falvey may have fully believed his original claim to finally let Jeffers take over as the club’s starting catcher after being fully healthy for the past three seasons (save for a concussion last September) but with a part-time workload. Maybe Caratini just fell into Minnesota’s metaphorical lap. But later, in those same comments about Jeffers from December, Falvey also said, “We know where he stands when it comes to service time and approaching free agency.” Jeffers will be a free agent after the 2026 season and was a rumored trade target for the Phillies prior to their reunion with free agent catcher JT Realmuto.

With the decision to bring in Caratini, in addition to the first baseman signing and frequent trade deadline acquisition, Jos Bell to a one-year deal (Minnesota’s only other notable move this winter), it appears Falvey’s offseason plans are more about retaining the flexibility to trade big-league talent than acquiring big-league talent to improve in the here and now.

Bell was traded for the first time in his career after the 2020 season and was subsequently moved to three consecutive trade deadline dates starting in 2022. As Michael Baumann noted in his report on the signing, Bell is a player with traits that are easy to dream about. He has managed six teams (so far) to believe that they might be the one to finally unlock his full potential. And if not, they can probably trade him for some prospects.

With Jackson in the fold, Jeffers with just one year of team control left, and Caratini on a two-year contract, the Twins could trade in July whichever of Jeffers or Caratini yields the better offer from a contender in need. And now that Caratini is capable of playing first base, utilityman Kody Clemens still on the list, and Erik Wagaman in the mix following a trade with the Marlins earlier this month, Bell is certainly more expendable if a valuable suitor comes along.

Overall, Minnesota’s offseason seems to be focused on ensuring it has enough playing depth at the big league level to cover innings while continuing to build future big leaguers on the farm. Meanwhile, building a competitor around Buxton is a secondary concern at best. But even though Falvey is clearly lying about the team’s intentions, it’s the kind of lie the baseball ecosystem deems necessary. Would it really benefit Jeffers, Caratini or Bell to hear their team’s POBO say he hopes to ship them in a few months? Buxton may appreciate a more honest approach, but there’s nothing stopping him from silently acknowledging what’s happening around him; Publicly admitting the lie would only make his life messy and uncomfortable as long as he remains with the organization. And despite the deceptive offseason marketing, the Twins should see improved offensive production at both first base and catcher this season.

Ty France did the most reps at first base in 2025 prior to his deadline trade to the Blue Jays, with Clemens taking over in the aftermath of the teardown. Both were below-average and mediocre defensemen, so no matter how the playing time split between Caratini and Bell at first base plays out, they will likely provide a significant upgrade on offense, albeit with a bit of a downgrade on defense. Behind the plate, Caratini replaces a defense-first catcher in Vázquez, whose framing took enough steps backward last year to make it impossible to justify his 55 wRC+. Caratini is generally a slightly above-average framer, but he’s coming off a slump in 2025. Although, depending on the downstream effects of the new automatic ball/strike challenge system and the future of ABS more broadly, that could matter less and less.

As he delved deeper into Caratini’s offense, the switch-hitter managed to post a wRC+ above 100 just once in his first six seasons of major league playing time. But he subsequently surpassed the mark in each of his two years in Houston, posting a 113 wRC+ in 2024 and a 104 wRC+ in 2025. Catchers who score above league average remain an endangered species, and Caratini’s rise to the exclusive club appears to be the result of meaningful improvements to his swing. He has supplemented the strong plate discipline with increased bat speed from the right side and a slightly more open stance and shorter swing when hitting left-handed. The changes improved his timing and contact quality, allowing him to connect with the ball while his swing was on the top edge, leading to a more optimal angle and direction of attack, and translating to more balls pulled into the air. More pulled balls in the air means more slugging. And while certain players enjoy hitting at Daikin Park, Caratini hit better on the road in both seasons with the Astros, and will likely prefer Target Field’s less spacious power court in right-center.

While Caratini is a solid addition to the roster, it’s still disappointing to see the Twins go from winning the division in 2023 and finishing above .500 in 2024 to acquiring players simply to have talent to trade at the deadline. Falvey is operating under particularly difficult constraints as the team’s ownership situation has been in flux in recent years, ranging from a possible sale of the team to adding two new limited partners to an ownership group that was previously a family-owned business. He has new stakeholders to please and new power dynamics to navigate. Perhaps given these limitations, it is unfair to label Falvey’s comments as lies. Perhaps the words of another great philosopher are more appropriate.

“I don’t lie. I just write fiction with my mouth.” – Homer Simpson

And sometimes fiction provides a necessary escape from reality. Philosophers differ on whether it is okay to lie and what types of lies are permissible. Some, like Plato, are open to the idea of ​​acceptable lies, while others, like Aristotle, are absolutists in their position that all lies are reprehensible. But even Aristotle admitted that there are edge cases where lying is acceptable. But since the Twins were good just two years ago, Falvey shouldn’t be in the spotlight as a fictional storyteller. On the contrary, Ownership and Falvey could have worked together to make him a more palatable kind of liar. I will send it back to Nietzsche to explain.

“The visionary lies to himself, the liar only to others.”

I can’t fully confirm the accuracy of this quote either, but I stand by the sentiment. If the Twins are going to lie, they have to turn the lies inward in a way that leads them to deny conventional thinking and implement bold strategies in the name of winning, as opposed to this milquetoast form of lying that convinces no one and reinforces the idea that it’s okay for professional sports teams to not even bother winning for a few seasons — as long as they don’t admit that they are doing so.