December has continued the trend. FIIs have been sellers on all trading days so far this month, offloading nearly Rs 15,959 crore through the exchanges. However, domestic institutional investors have stepped in again and bought shares worth around Rs 39,965 crore during the same period.The sharp difference highlights an ongoing structural shift in Indian markets. An important pillar of this resilience is the steady inflow of private investors into investment funds, especially through systematic investment plans. But the question is how long they can sell, especially if growth prospects look strong and profits are likely to improve.
According to VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, SIP inflows have consistently remained above Rs 29,000 crore in the last three months. These flows have strengthened domestic institutions in what he describes as the ongoing tug-of-war between the FIIs and the DIIs.
Vijayakumar points out that sustained foreign sales will be difficult to sustain in the face of such steady domestic inflows. Maintaining large short positions while the economy is performing well and earnings visibility is improving is not a sustainable strategy, he argues. According to him, the ability of DIIs to absorb FII sales reflects the growing maturity of the Indian equity ecosystem.
What adds nuance to the story is that foreign investors have not become uniformly negative about India. While selling heavily in the secondary market, FIIs invested around Rs 67,000 crore in the primary market so far. This includes participation in IPOs and other capital raising exercises, indicating continued confidence in India’s long-term growth story. Several temporary factors have weighed on foreign sentiment, including the depreciation of the rupee, delays in the finalization of a US-India trade deal, and global uncertainty around AI-led transactions. These may be short-term problems rather than structural problems.
Vijayakumar emphasizes that the key driver for the market will be earnings growth, which looks promising as India heads towards FY27.
Also read: Jefferies sets Nifty target for December 2026 at 28,300 on improved valuations for EPS growth; lists the top 10 choices
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions expressed by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.
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