The recovery was broad, led by health care, car, and the resistance on the back of the hunt for bargains and strong domestic demand expectations. Consumer -discretionary shares also won almost 2%, which is a reflection of optimism around consumption. FMCG and oil and gas, on the other hand, finished flat to marginal lower, because investors made a profit in Defensives and responded to moderate trends in the fuel price.
In this respect, analyst Sudeep ShahVice -president and head of technical and derivatives research SBI effectsInteraction with ET markets with regard to the prospects for Nifty and Bank Nifty, as well as an index strategy for the coming week. The following are the edited fragments from his chat:
After 6 consecutive weeks, Nifty finally finished in Green this week. What is expected?
This Independence Week finally broke the Benchmark index Nifty from its six-week losing series, registered a healthy profit of 1.10% and reclaiming the 24,600 Mark. Just like the hard -fought freedom of the nation, this rebound has brought lighting after a long -term market weakness. Nevertheless, the last two trading sessions have seen the index move in a narrow range, so that small candles are formed-a reminder that perarish pressure still needs a stronger land.
Currently, Nifty remains under the EMA of 20 days and 50 days, with both averages that float lower as a result of a continuous battle in the medium-term trend. The daily RSI Zijwaart moves on the momentumfront
Internally, the “troops” of the index are not all of them at the same time 28 of the 50 Nifty voters still act under their 50-day EMA, which suggests that this recovery has no broad participation.
For the rally to achieve real strength – just like the unit that the Indian freedom movement has driven – Nifty must conquer the resistance zone of 24,750-24,800. A persistent movement above 24,800 can open the path to 25,100. On the other hand, 24,470–24,450 remains the crucial support basis. A decisive infringement under 24,450 was able to see the index -back trip to 24,250 and possibly up to 24,100.
Until a broader participation comes in the march, this rally remains a work in progress – a movement that still strives for full market freedom.
Let’s talk about bank Nifty. Since April it has largely been in a wide range. Does the index look at all tradable at all?
In the past week, the Banking Benchmark Index Bank Nifty moved within a tight tire of only 654 points – the narrowest weekly range since the last week of August 2024. The index lagged behind the frontline indices, with only a modest profit of 0.61%. On the weekly graph it formed a small bullish candle with a small upper shade, which indicates a lack of strong directional momentum.
At the moment the index is floating around its 100-day EMA for the last six trade sessions, which reflects a decisive phase. It continues to act under his EMAs of 20 and 50 days, making the trend structure weak. In the meantime, the daily RSI gets stuck in a lateral zone, which underlines the absence of a clear breakout signal.
In the future, the zone of 55,700-55,800 is expected to act as an important resistance to the index, while the zone of 54,900-54,800 will serve as crucial support. A long -term movement beyond one of these levels can cause a directional movement.
Do you recommend day trade or positional trade in bank Nifty? What are the most important levels you look at?
Positionally, the zone of 55,700-55,800 will act as an important resistance for the Bank Nifty, while the 54900-54800 zone will serve as crucial support. A long -term movement beyond one of these levels can cause a directional movement.
What are the OI data that suggests for Nifty before the market is opened on Monday? What can a potential trade setup look like?
The option data and PCR suggest a phase of short -term consolidation in the market. The PCR fluctuates between 0.78 and 1.08 indicates a balanced sentiment, without signs of extreme bullish or bearish positioning. Strong Put Writing on 24,600 and 24,500 exercise prices emphasizes immediate support zones, while writing on 24,700 and 24,800 points at the resistance levels in the short term. A breakdown below 24,450 can drag the index to 24,300-24,250, while a persistent outbreak above 24,800 can open the path to 25,000-25,050. Until a decisive movement occurs, the index will probably consolidate within the range of 24,450 – 24,750. In addition, stable implicit volatility around 10 reflects a lack of panic, which enhances the image of a steady, accessible market in the short term.
Post Q1 income, Muthoot Finance and Apollo hospitals have shown a great achievement on the graphs. Do you recommend positions to this?
Yes, both Muthoot Finance and Apollo hospitals have delivered strong weekly breakouts, supported by a robust volume, which adds beliefs to the move. With both shares that are traded in the vicinity of or too all time, the technical set-up Bullish-Alle, important advanced averages, will remain trending upwards, and momentum indicators such as RSI and MacD show strength
That is why we believe that the outlook will remain positive in the medium term and that the shares will probably continue their outperformance. We recommend collecting dips instead of having to chase the rally to manage the risk and optimize the input levels.
On which sectors do you concentrate?
From a technical perspective, sectors such as Nifty Auto, Nifty PSU Bank, Nifty Healthcare, Nifty Pharma and Nifty India Tourism will probably retain their relative outperformance
Although the Nifty IT, oil and gas, FMCG, media and real estate can continue to perform in the short term.
Also read: From Paytm to Eternal: 42 shares where the best performing PMS fund managers of India on bet
Any shares that are technically well placed?
Technically, Chalet Hotel, HDFC Life, Uno Minda and Max Financial look good.
((Indemnification: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions of the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of economic times)
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