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Fantasy and DFS enthusiasts, bettors and analysts often rely on a wide range of statistics and models to gain a competitive advantage. These range from basic box score stats to advanced stats available in PFF’s Premium Stats 2.0 and models such as Josh Hermsmeyer’s Buy Low model and WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating).
There is always room for new insights and analysis to help bettors and fantasy managers refine their strategies. That’s why I developed a new metric that offers several advantages over WOPR. Click here for a detailed explanation of the model, my process and its benefits.
Week 14 Summary
The model identified four top-15 wide receivers and five players who scored at least 15 PPR points. Emeka Egbuka leads the NFL in “inaccurate” targets with 21, and Justin Jefferson is second with 16. Weekly models like DK Metcalf and Zay Flowers are both in the top 10.
Potential outbreaks: week 15
PWOPR is significantly more stable than FPpG and serves as a stronger indicator of future performance. To help identify potential breakout candidates, the residual is calculated by subtracting a player’s predicted FPpG from his actual FPpG. Players with a strong PWOPR and a residual of -3.0 or lower are included on this list. Players will remain on the list until one of the following conditions is met:
- They fulfill their PWOPR potential with a big play
- Their PWOPR decreases to match their expected FPpG
WR DK Metcalf, Pittsburgh Steelers vs Miami Dolphins
Metcalf has the best PWOPR in the NFL over the last four weeks and recorded his second-best game (by fantasy) of the year in Week 14. After earning the No. 1 PWOPR in Week 14, Metcalf collected 12 targets and 143 yards – but failed to score a touchdown on two targets inside the 10-yard line.
This kind of performance would normally be enough to get a player left off the list the following week. But without a touchdown and the No. 1 PWOPR, we see Metcalf once again needing positive regression against the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins allow the 11th-highest number of open targets to wide receivers while having the 13th-ranked PFF coverage grade on the team. Their major weakness is their pass rush, as they rank last in the team’s PFF pass rush grade and are bottom 10 in rush pressure.
As we saw in Week 14, Metcalf relies on deep throws, while the Dolphins allow the seventh-lowest target depth to wide receivers. This is a neutral matchup for the Steelers and DK Metcalf with no clear edges.
WR Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers
On the other side of the match we have Jaylen Waddle, who is also having a pretty good match. Waddle finished with the second-best PWOPR in Week 14 and has a much more favorable matchup against this Steelers defense.
The Steelers rank average in team PFF coverage grade, top-three in team PFF pass-rush grade and top-10 in man coverage grade. Waddle’s biggest hurdle will be his own offense, as the Dolphins rank 32nd in pass play percentage as of Week 10.
Waddle should be efficient against the heavy Steelers in man coverage, but his volume may not allow him to have a dominant day. In games where Miami is forced into a heavy passing script, expect Waddle to dominate.
WR Chris Olaf, New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers
The Saints opened Week 14 with a deep shot to Chris Olave, in which Tyler Shough was slightly inaccurate. After this target, and as the rain began to fall, the Saints’ offense became much more conservative.
This Panthers matchup is neutral to slightly negative for Olave. Carolina boasts a slightly above-average team PFF coverage grade and a bottom-three PFF pass rush grade, while allowing a bottom-10 wide receiver open target rate.
Both offenses are around league average in pass play percentage, while both defenses rank in the top seven in run frequency. If these trends hold, this game could fly by with both teams continuing to run the ball consistently.
WR Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengal vs Baltimore Ravens
Since entering the league in 2021, Ja’Marr Chase owns a PFF grade of 90.8, 2.55 yards per route, and a 25.5% THREAT against the Ravens. They’re all elite stats, but none are technically applicable to this specific matchup. Chase enters this game having posted the 16th best PWOPR in Week 14 and the ninth highest PWOPR over the past month.
The Ravens have the 10th-best PFF coverage grade for teams while playing the fifth-highest percentage of man coverage. Throughout his career, Chase has an elite PFF grade of 90.6 and a 26.1% THREAT coverage against men. In 2025, he has a solid PFF grade of 76.4 with an even better THREAT of 28.1%. This is a good matchup, as shown in the PFF Matchup Tool below.
WR Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengal
Although it took most of the season, Flowers finally surpassed 100 receiving yards before his second game. Like Metcalf, he finished with an elite PWOPR, ranking third for Week 14 without scoring a touchdown. These factors cause repeats even when a player has a great performance.
The Bengals present a solid fit for Flowers, as they rank in the bottom five for both the team’s PFF coverage grade and the team’s PFF pass-rush grade. The biggest problem will be how the Bengals route their targets to the tight end position. Currently, they are among the best team in the NFL in preventing open targets for wide receivers, preventing many wide receiver opportunities, and rank No. 1 in targets allowed to the tight end position.
This pattern appears stable as it has been present over the past month and this season. That ultimately presents challenges for Flowers in week 15.
WR Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons
As I mentioned earlier, Egbuka leads the NFL in “inaccurate” targets. For passers with at least 100 dropbacks, Mayfield ranks 35th in accurate throw percentage on the season. Oddly enough, Mayfield has the eighth-best accurate throw rate as of Week 10, but the worst uncatchable inaccurate throw rate.
Egbuka shares some blame, as he has a PFF grade of 67.3 – which ranks 44th out of 58 players with at least 50 targets. The Falcons are a good fit to throw up some explosive plays, as they allow the second-highest EPA per play on wide receiver targets and have the eighth-worst PFF grade against wide receivers.
For whatever reason, the couple has trouble connecting. But with Mayfield performing well with other players, it’s only a matter of time before he and Egbuka reignite things.
THE Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Kyle Pitts has risen with Kirk Cousins at quarterback, scoring at least eight goals in three of the four games Cousins has started. The Buccaneers are an average coverage unit with a top-10 PFF pass-rush grade. They also blitz at the fifth fastest rate in the past month, but still generate the twelfth amount of quick pressure.
Pitts is second on the team with a THREAT rate of 36.7% when the defense is heating up and Tampa’s defense is allowing the fourth-highest passing percentage. As long as Cousins is the starter, Pitts is in a great position, and this matchup is very solid for him.
WR Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Leaders
The Chiefs pose a bit of a challenge at wide receivers. They offer the fourth-fewest number of open targets and have the twelfth-best PFF coverage rate on wide receiver targets. However, they do yield the third-highest yards per reception over the past month.
The Chiefs generate the second-highest level of press coverage, and Ladd McConkey has an elite 28.1% THREAT (ranks 13th) in press coverage situations. This is a surprisingly good match especially for McConkey.
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