Fantasy football trading is an important way to improve your team. However, it is also the only controllable way to make other teams worse. In theory, great fantasy football trades optimize the rosters of both teams involved, leaving non-trade teams behind. This series will help provide some useful tips for players to “buy” and “sell” in trades. It also provides the right context for determining when trading or trading away a specific player makes sense for your team. For a player to be involved in a transaction, there must be a market for that player. Unlike your typical “trade for” and “trade away” articles aimed at taking advantage of less knowledgeable league peers, this series takes team context into account to determine whether you should buy or sell a hot player on the trade market.
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Week 8 Fantasy Football Trading Advice
On the block: RB Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles
Reason to buy: RB1 overall end of season
Saquon Barkley has disappointed this season. Nearly halfway through the season, Barkley sits at RB14 overall and is just RB18 in fantasy points per game. However, better days may be ahead. Barkley still sits at the top of the league with an 84.8% chance share. He also has one of the most favorable schedules for the rest of the season. This includes games against the Cowboys, Bears, Chargers and Bills. These teams have given up some of the most fantasy points for running backs on the season. This could be a buy-low opportunity for Barkley, which could make your league mates look weird if you can get him on your team. This is especially tempting if you’re near the bottom of the leaderboard and looking for a high-variance move.
Reason to sell: Reduced efficiency and reduced opportunities
A big part of why Barkley doesn’t repeat as the RB1 this season is that he sees fewer rushing plays. Last season, the Eagles averaged 45 rushing plays per game. This season they are only running 26 rush plays per game. In addition to these reduced opportunities, Barkley was also less efficient with his touches. He is averaging just 3.8 yards per touch, down from 6.0 last season. He also averages 58 yards per game; last season he created 75 yards per game. While a good schedule can address some of Barkley’s efficiency issues, the Eagles will need to become a significantly tougher offense before Barkley can get close to an overall RB1 finish. Trading away Barkley while he still has first-round name value could be a wise move if you already have high upside players on your roster.
Nearby: WR Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
Reason to buy: QB-proof performance
Another disappointing first-round pick this season is Justin Jefferson, who is the WR18 overall and WR14 in fantasy points per game. Much of Jefferson’s struggles are tied to the Vikings’ inconsistent quarterback situation. Jefferson first played with JJ McCarthy and then with Carson Wentz. Both Wentz and McCarthy have struggled to maintain consistency this season. However, despite the Vikings’ struggles at quarterback, Jefferson has seen similar volume and usage in the Vikings’ offense compared to previous seasons. He is one of the top ten qualified receivers in both air yards and air yards. He also ranks in the top five among qualified receivers in yards after the catch. Suppose the Vikings get consistency from the quarterback position at some point, perhaps with McCarthy’s return, as the schedule opens up. In that case, Jefferson will finally live up to the expectations of those who drafted him.
Reason for selling: QB not getting better
Carson Wentz will start this Thursday in what may be his last start for the Vikings as JJ McCarthy nears a return from a high ankle sprain. Unfortunately, Jefferson has done much better with Wentz as the starter. Jefferson has two weekly top 12 WR finishes with Wentz under center, compared to none with McCarthy starting. Development is not necessarily linear and can sometimes be exponential. Whether McCarthy returns a better QB than Wentz is anyone’s guess, but if you’re not interested in that answer, it could be a good time to trade Jefferson for as close to his draft day value as possible.
On the block: RB Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland Browns
Reason for purchase: Bell Cow
Quinshon Judkins is coming off a career game in which he saw a season-high 25 carries and scored three touchdowns, finishing Week 7 as the RB4 with 26.4 fantasy points. While it may seem like a good time to sell high on Judkins, this is actually a good buying opportunity. Judkins is averaging just over 20 combined targets and carries per game. He is a locked-in bell cow for the Browns, who prefer to run the football rather than expose Dillon Gabriel in the passing game. Look forward to using Judkins’ bell cow to go ahead and acquire him for less than the top 12 RB value before he permanently becomes part of that crew.
Reason for sale: The Browns
While Judkins’ talent is undeniable, he plays for a team that is devoid of additional offensive talent. Game script could also be an issue with Judkins, who posted a season-low 3.6 fantasy points in Week 6 when the Browns trailed the Steelers. If your belief that the Browns are the Browns is stronger than your belief that Judkins is a top 12 running back, take this opportunity to sell the rookie high.
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