Falling deals spark new fear of price rises – realestate.com.au

The end of spring has led to a sharp drop in property supply, with experts warning that the shortage of supply could push prices up even further.

New research from SQM has found that property supply fell in November as the spring selling season draws to a close.

Total national listings fell 5.4 percent month-on-month in November to 238,824, with inventory levels now 12.4 percent lower than last year.

In Sydney, listings fell by 8.6 percent in November. A total of 33,883 homes were listed this month – 8.3 percent fewer than around the same time last year.

SQM attributed the annual decline to some sellers withdrawing unsold properties in the run-up to the holiday season, but there was a sharp drop in the number of new listings.

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New listings fell by 11.3 per cent nationally, marking the end of the spring campaign, which was reflected in Sydney when new listings fell by 19.2 per cent.

Listings that were more than 180 days old and considered “old” dropped 7.9 percent to 66,633 listings. In Sydney, the number of older listings fell by 4.1 percent.

The research shows that this suggests existing inventory will continue even as new supply declines.

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Distressed listings fell 2.2 per cent month on month and are down 32.3 per cent compared to November 2024 in NSW. This was an annual change of -25.4 percent.

As deals have fallen, price increases have risen, with figures likely to cause concern in certain locations ahead of the Christmas period.

National asking prices rose in November, with homes rising 1.0 percent and units rising 0.6 percent over the month.

Asking prices for Sydney homes rose 1.4 per cent to $2.13 million and remain 9.1 per cent higher year-on-year, while units rose 0.9 per cent monthly and 6.3 per cent annually.

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SQM Research Managing Director Louis Christopher said the drop in listings in November was consistent with a seasonal slowdown after spring.

“What is more worrying is the large year-on-year shortfall in shares, with listings down 12 percent from 2024,” he said.

“Even with fewer new listings, the significant decline in older supply tells us that buyers remain active, especially in markets like Brisbane and Perth where demand continues to outpace supply.”

Mr Christopher said asking prices were still rising and the strongest growth was concentrated in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide.

“Unless we see a sustained increase in listings early next year, this upward price pressure is likely to continue.”

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