The experts are back for the Australian Open final between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic on Sunday evening at Rod Laver Arena. A panel of three teams makes predictions for a new chapter in the rivalry.
(1) Carlos Alcaraz vs. 4) Novak Djokovic
Ricky: Considering the unknown variables at play after what happened in the semifinals, this is one of the most difficult matches of all time to handicap. There is absolutely no way to know how either man will appear on Sunday. Heck, not even she know! After all, Djokovic is 38 years old and just played a four-hour, nine-minute match against Jannik Sinner that ended around 2 a.m. on Friday evening (Saturday morning). Alcaraz’s semi-final against Alexander Zverev lasted five hours and 27 minutes, of which the Spaniard suffered from cramps in his legs for several hours. Two days later, something could happen. But since I forced to pick a side here, I’m going with Djokovic. Despite his grueling semi-final, the Serbian only played two and a half sets combined in the fourth round and quarter-finals. That’s big for his recovery effort. Moreover, he is a 10-time Australian Open champion (10-0 in the final!) and a 24-time major champion overall. Yes, 11 and 25 would be nice, but it wouldn’t change anything. The pressure is all on Alcaraz, for whom Aussie Open title No. 1 would change everything. At 22, he is trying to become the youngest man to complete the Grand Slam career. This event may not be easy to deal with, and there have been times where we have seen pressure impact Alcaraz’s physical condition. It’s not a confident choice, but this feels like a favorable spot – perhaps even a destination – for Djokovic. Djokovic in 4: 6-4, 3-6, 6-3, 7-6(7).
Cheryl: . Until Friday’s matches, I might have been tempted to use the term “disappointing” to describe this year’s Australian Open. But as usual, the world’s top 4 managed to liven things up just when we needed it. The match between Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev was breathtaking. It had it all: rama, cramps, a comeback in the fifth set. Those of Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic were less so from a quality perspective, but equally high in the drama department. Come on. Djokovic is currently 65 years old. He’s a MACHINE. That he would do what he did against Sinner? Legendary. So where does that leave us for the final? Under any other circumstances, it would be an easy choice for Alcaraz. The Spaniard is currently better than Djokovic and sixteen years younger than him. And yet…I’m not going to do it. Choose Carlitos, that’s it. First of all, he’s never been to an Australian Open final (it’s by far his least successful major) AND the Career Slam is on the line. Why does this matter? Because he tends to let ‘the moment’ dominate him a bit. He also spent five and a half hours trying to beat Zverev. Conversely, the Australian Open is Djokovic’s best chance at No. 25 and that moment has NEVER reached him. I give this to the master. Djokovic in 5: 6-4, 6-7(3), 7-5, 4-6, 7-5.
Pete (Tennis insight): First, Alcaraz Zverev “lived” in more than five hours to advance to his first Australian Open final. The length of the match brought back memories of both the 2009 Nadal-Verdasco AO SF and the interminable 2012 Djokovic-Nadal AO final. A victory for the Spaniard in the final would secure the Grand Slam career at the age of 22. Djokovic then almost mirrored Federer at Wimbledon in 2019 when he squandered two championship points in their final as he almost let Sinner back into the match despite receiving two match points. Djokovic also paralleled Federer to some extent when the Swiss defeated Djokovic in the Roland Garros semi-finals in 2011, when the Serb’s 43-match winning streak came to an immediate halt. With this win, Djokovic ended Sinner’s 22-set winning streak against top-10 opponents and a 19-match winning streak at the Australian Open. Djokovic is 10-0 in the Australian Open final and looking for his 25th major of his career. The 38-year-old is the better hard-court player, but the ability of even him to compete at full strength 41 hours after a physically and emotionally draining semi-final may be too much to ask. At the same time, Alcaraz will feel the pressure of trying to win the one major that has eluded him for the first time, and he too may not be in ideal physical condition on Sunday night in Melbourne due to breakdowns in his body during most of his semi-final. In the end, youth wins. Alcaraz in 4: 7-6(4), 3-6, 6-4, 6-4.
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