It is widely believed that Expected Goals is the best way to measure how well Premier League clubs are playing in a given match.
To better see how teams are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric can give you a better idea of how teams are performing.
Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to calculate how many goals should be scored in a match.
Each individual shot is assigned an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors such as distance to goal, type of shot and number of defenders present influencing the value.
The higher the xG of a given shot, the greater the chance that a goal will be scored with that shot.
The xG value of each shot in a match is then used to calculate the expected goals in a given match.
So instead of just the usual basic stats of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals takes into account where the shot was taken from, how good the chance was and if there were any defenders in the way, etc.
These were five Premier League matches at 3pm, with expected goals stats (plus actual final score in brackets) via Undercarriage:
Brighton 0.86 vs Newcastle United 1.28 (2-1)
Burnley 0.51 vs Leeds 2.33 (2-0)
Palace 4.56 vs Bournemouth 2.05 (3-3)
Man City 2.48 vs Everton 0.79 (2-0)
Sunderland 1.02 v Wolves 0.68 (2-0)
As you can see, some very interesting matches, both in terms of the final outcome and the expected goals stats.
Those expected goals stats give us a better idea of how these games actually went, beyond just the final score.
An exciting thriller with six goals between Palace and Bournemouth, clearly a very open match and lots of chances. However, despite a huge expected goals statistic of 4.56 compared to Bournemouth’s less than half that 2.05, Palace got almost nothing from the game as the Cherries led 2-0 and then 3-2 as the home side squandered many huge chances while the away side were more clinical. Furthermore, Mateta got a hat-trick but squandered a huge easy chance late on to win it.
Speaking of clinical… Burnley won 2-0 despite an expected goals stat of 0.51 compared to Leeds’ 2.33, the visitors must have been kidding themselves after losing and not even scoring a single goal despite creating a fair number of very decent chances.
Man City (expected goals stat of 2.48) clearly created much clearer chances than Everton (0.79) and earned a regular 2-0 home win.
While Sunderland (1.02) edged Wolves (0.68) when it came to clear chances, although the 2-0 flattered them.
What about Newcastle United?
As you can see above, the Newcastle Expected Goals statistic of 1.28, compared to Brighton’s 0.86, clearly shows that United did not deserve to lose this one, based on the overall play, number and quality of chances. Newcastle’s expected goals advantage over Brighton was greater than the Mackems’ expected goals stats over Wolves. United’s overall play deserved something from the match, but Welbeck’s two top performances were so clinical.
Nick Woltemade scored that glorious goal from a difficult scoring opportunity, but the team as a whole needs to step up when it comes to taking chances.
In addition to the expected goals stats, the other underlying stats support the suggestion that Newcastle certainly deserved something thanks to their much better performance in the second half. In the match, Newcastle, who played away, had more possession (56% versus 44%) than Brighton, as well as more shots (16 versus 13).
Brighton 2 Newcastle 1 – Saturday 18 October 2025 3pm
(Statistics via BBC Sports)
Goals:
Newcastle United:
Woltemade 76
Brighton:
Welbeck 41, 85
Possess was Newcastle 54% Brighton 46%
Total shots were Newcastle 16 Brighton 13
Shots on target were Newcastle 3 Brighton 5
Corners were Newcastle 4 Brighton 8
Touches in the box Newcastle 25 Brighton 29
Newcastle team vs Brighton:
Pope, Trippier, Thiaw, Botman, Burn, Bruno (Osula 86), Joelinton (Miley 46), Tonali (Ramsey 70), Gordon (Barnes 70), Woltemade, Elanga (Murphy 46)
Unused subs:
Ramsdale, Krafth, Willock, Schar
(Newcastle United lose to Brighton…Read HERE)
(Brighton 2 Newcastle 1 – Match ratings and commentary on all Newcastle United players – Read HERE)
(Brighton 2 Newcastle 1 – Direct response from Newcastle United fan/writer – Read HERE)
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