Early odds heavily favor Waldo Cortes-Acosta over Derrick Lewis at UFC 324

The heavyweight division gets a compelling matchup when Waldo Cortes-Acosta takes on Derrick Lewis at UFC 324 on Jan. 24, 2026 from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, marking the UFC’s first live event on Paramount+.

Early betting lines reflect a significant gap between the two, with Cortes-Acosta established as the -230 single-book favorite and Lewis positioned as a +176 underdog. More recent lines from various sportsbooks, such as Mateslots bonusshow movement in the odds, with Cortes-Acosta at -205 and Lewis at +175, while win probability models suggest roughly a 70-30 split in favor of the Dominican fighter.

Early odds heavily favor Waldo Cortes-Acosta over Derrick Lewis at UFC 324

The context behind this matchup reveals a stark contrast in activity and trajectory. Cortes-Acosta has enjoyed one of the most unusual campaigns in recent history, making five appearances in 2025 and finishing the year with a 4-1 record. He opened his year by stopping Ryan Spann in the second round of UFC Fight Night in March, followed by a unanimous decision win over Serghei Spivac in June.

After dropping a decision to Sergei Pavlovich in August, Cortes-Acosta bounced back with consecutive first-round finishes that earned bonuses. His November campaign included a first-round finish of Ante Delija on November 1 despite an eye-poke incident, and then an 82-second knockout of Shamil Gaziev just three weeks later in Qatar on short notice. This relentless pace has propelled the 33-year-old Dominican to the fifth heavyweight rankings.

Lewis operated under completely different circumstances. The 40-year-old veteran competed just once in 2025, returning from a 14-month layoff to face undefeated Tallison Teixeira at UFC Nashville in July. That fight lasted just 35 seconds, with Lewis dropping Teixeira with a punch after an eyewitness and wrapping things up with ground strikes.

The finish resulted in his 16th career knockout, the most in UFC history, adding to his legend as the promotion’s Knockouts King. Despite his stoppage-time victory, Lewis remains number eight in the heavyweight division, still searching for the consistency that eluded him in his previous six fights, in which he compiled a 2-4 record dating back to February 2022.

This heavyweight bout is on the main card of UFC 324, sandwiched between the bantamweight championship bout featuring Sean O’Malley vs. Yadong Song and featherweight action featuring Arnold Allen vs. Jean Silva, giving it solid positioning as the card develops. The fight has consequences for both men; a Cortes-Acosta win could put him within striking distance of title contention, while a Lewis finish would inject him immediately back into the title conversation despite his dismissal.​