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Game overview
The outcome of this Monday night game between the Dolphins and Steelers will have far-reaching implications in determining the long-term AFC playoff picture.
The Steelers hold a slim lead over the closely contested AFC North, making this a crucial matchup if they hope to maintain control of the division. Although this game will take place in Pittsburgh, the Steelers have struggled with consistency at home this season. Pittsburgh has just a 3-3 record against the spread in its own stadium, including a blowout loss to the Bills in Week 13, which left the home crowd mostly dissatisfied with the on-field product.
Pittsburgh’s woes cannot be isolated to one side of the ball as in recent seasons, with week-to-week consistency difficult to achieve. What hasn’t diminished is the Steelers’ ability to rush the passer, with their 83.0 team PFF pass-rush grade ranking third in the NFL. However, they will be without the leader of their defense this week, with TJ Watt ruled out after suffering a partially collapsed lung at the facility early this week.
That could prove to be a problem against a Dolphins team that is on the rise and has a 4-0 record (3-1 against the spread) since early November. Much of that success can be attributed to a resurgence on the defensive side of the ball for Miami. During that span, the Dolphins have maintained the fifth-best EPA per play rating in the NFL while also giving up the lowest scoring drive percentage (20.9%).
Still, it’s never been easier when it comes to teams traveling in warm weather in December. The Dolphins’ struggle to generate offense in cold, snowy conditions has been a topic of conversation for some time. With the forecast in Pittsburgh calling for sub-zero temperatures and snow, the elements could play a deciding factor in this matchup.
WR DK Metcalf, Pittsburgh Steelers: Under 57.5 receiving yards (-115)
Metcalf is coming off an explosive performance in Week 14, racking up 148 yards on seven receptions against the Ravens. Still, he was targeted on more than 36% of his routes, an abnormally high percentage for the veteran receiver – who has averaged a target on 20.4% of his routes this season. That usage trend has seen Metcalf fall below expectations in five of his past six games, producing an average of 42 yards per game.
He faces a Dolphins defense that has made tremendous strides in recent weeks. Over the past four games, Miami has held opponents’ offense to the fourth-lowest EPA per dropback (-0.218) in the NFL.
A lot of that can be attributed to this defense’s ability to limit production to outside receivers. Entering Week 15, the Dolphins have yielded the third-fewest receiving yards to outside pass catchers.
Metcalf has a tough match against Rasul Douglas this week. The Dolphins cornerback has played well all season, earning a top-12 PFF coverage grade (75.6) at the cornerback position
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