Sixteen points; that was the minimum needed in the first season of the revamped Champions League to qualify directly for the Round of 16 without having to win a home-and-away knockout match in the play-offs.
With nine points out of a possible twelve so far, Newcastle United appear to have every chance of finishing in the top eight.
Two wins at St. James’ Park and one in Brussels, all achieved without conceding a goal, should fill any fan with confidence.
The form and results of the Champions League are unfortunately in stark contrast to the Premier League campaign. Three wins and five defeats in eleven games undermine any claim to a place at the top of Europe.
Or do they? What are we witnessing here? I suspect nothing other than the superiority of the Premier League over its continental counterparts.
Simply put, winning games in England’s ultra-competitive domestic campaign can be tougher than beating foreign opposition in what is said to be the biggest club competition in the world. The high-speed, high-press tactics that we struggle to overcome in the Premier League are unusual in continental Europe.
Last season’s winners Paris St Germain might argue that the Champions League is all about artistic talent, more about Monet and Manet than money, money, money, but that’s not the impression you get when you look at the 36-team automatic qualifiers from the 36-team first phase in 2024/25.
Liverpool topped the first table, with Arsenal third and Aston Villa eighth. Spain had two representatives, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid, while Inter, Leverkusen and Lille completed the leading octet.
In case you forgot, Manchester City went into the play-offs on goal difference, having collected just eleven points from eight games and finishing in 22nd place. Yes, 11 points. The Mags may not even need to win one of our remaining four matches to progress; a few draws could be enough to reach the play-offs. Once a team survives the first hurdle by finishing in the top 24, anything is possible. Just ask PSG, who were conspicuous by their absence from the automatic qualifiers, as were Real Madrid.
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Man City’s reward for stumbling through the group stages was a play-off against one of the eight teams finishing between ninth and 16th. UEFA believed that the ninth should play 24th, the 10th should play 23rd, the 11th should play 22nd, etc. Real Madrid, who finished 11th, defeated Man City home and away to advance to the round of 16. Adios and Pep, seemingly unable to cope due to the absence of key players such as Rodri.
Based on the teams’ respective Champions League form to that point, the outcome was not surprising. Man City also went through a few difficult months on the home front. Low on self-confidence, unable to cope when opponents went for the jugular instead of turning around to get their bellies tickled or shut up. Sound familiar? They eventually turned it around and finished the season third in the Premier League. Some players rediscovered their best form, others returned from injury, and a busy January period helped. It’s not over until it’s over.
While Man City’s demise in the Champions League play-offs wasn’t a huge shock, there were two unexpected winners from the eight games. Brugge (24th) eliminated Atalanta (9th), while Feyenoord (19th) eliminated AC Milan (13th). Mediocre results in the group stage are not necessarily a barrier to later glory. Likewise, sparkling pre-Christmas form may mean nothing in the Round of 16.
Just ask Liverpool, the early leaders, who were eliminated by PSG on penalties. If that seems unfortunate, don’t forget how Alisson kept them afloat at the Parc de Princes in the first leg until Liverpool scored in the 87th minute with their only effort on target. Total attempts two, compared to PSG’s 28.
At Anfield, the hosts collected two goal attempts before the shoot-out, while their opponents had eight.
Only two Premier League clubs reached the quarter-finals. Villa pushed PSG all the way before losing 5-4 on aggregate. The perennial French champions completed their hat-trick of successes against English clubs by beating Arsenal home and away in the semi-finals.
The current European champions are an exceptional team, but are only ahead of Newcastle on goal difference in the group stage so far. With only one goal, to be precise.
We still have unfinished business with them after what happened in the ultimate Group of Death two seasons ago. Before the competition in Paris on Wednesday, January 28, there are still plenty of demonstrably more difficult assignments.
No one should dispute that we need a reset in our own country. Our next chance is at home against Man City on Saturday week. From what I’ve seen on TV this month, they’ll soon be bringing in the big pretenders from North London, who were made to look ordinary by their vicious opponents last weekend.
Man City will be formidable, make no mistake. Almost exactly 72 hours after that game ends, United will warm up at the Stade Velodrome. Just like Manchester City, Marseille is second in the national league, with 25 points from twelve games.
Their Champions League form is slightly different. Played four, won one, lost three. Beaten by Real Madrid, Sporting and Atalanta. Currently they are ranked 25th. Needing eight or nine more points to reach the play-off stage, Marseille may look at the poor Mags and think: “There are three points up for grabs.”
Based purely on reputation, they will undoubtedly view their fourth match at home, against Liverpool, as less attractive. Let’s hope Marseille underestimates us. Eddie Howe and his men must head to the Mediterranean and extend the excellent run of results we have achieved against our continental cousins.
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