Weekly ongoing sales
Pending home sales data provides a week-to-week perspective, although results may be affected by holidays and short-term fluctuations, such as the recent winter storm that hit the country. I was expecting a small bounce last week and we were just a little higher than what I was looking for. The winter effect will soon disappear completely from the housing data. Our weekly sales data lags the monthly sales data by 30-60 days.
For those asking about the recent existing home sales report that missed sales estimates: this episode from the HousingWire Daily podcast looks at the reasons why, and it really wasn’t so much about the weather as it was about the impact of the holidays.
Weekly open sales last week for the past two years:
- 2026: 59,469
- 2025: 60,316
Note: Before the snowstorm hit, all forward-looking data lines were positive year over year, so I think we’re almost done with all the snow damage. For example, our aggregate ongoing home sales data, which is less volatile, is showing year-over-year growth every week this year.
Mortgage purchase application details
I believe we were hit the hardest by the snowstorm. While we haven’t seen a single week of negative year-on-year numbers in 2026, week-on-week results took a hit two weeks ago, and we saw a slight decline last week. What I would like to see is about 12 to 14 weeks of positive week-to-week data, and before the snowstorm hit the US, we had the best start to the year in many years.
These applications typically lag sales data by 30 to 90 days. Here’s 2026 so far:
- 2 positive results from week to week
- 2 negative prints from week to week
- 1 flat week-by-week printout
- Three weeks of double-digit year-on-year growth
- 5 weeks of positive year-over-year growth
10-year interest rate and mortgage interest rate
In the HousingWire forecast for 2026, I expected the following ranges:
- Mortgage interest between 5.75% and 6.75%
- The 10-year interest rate fluctuates between 3.80% and 4.60%
Last week we finally took some action on the 10-year yield. Even with the positive jobs report, the bond market didn’t really buy the stronger jobs data, and we ended the week at Friday’s low around 4.05%, so not far from the forecast low of 3.80%. The CPI inflation report was tame enough to send 10-year yields falling further on Friday. At one point last week we were at 4.25%, so there has been a big move in interest rates this past week.
Interest rates ended the week lower at 6.04% Mortgage news dailyand Polly’s mortgage rate data shows a weekend rate of 6.07%.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage spreads remain a positive story for residential construction in 2026, reducing mortgage rate volatility, and are close to normal levels. Historically, mortgage spreads have ranged from 1.60% to 1.80%. Last week’s spreads closed at 1.91%. If spreads were to match the 2023 peak level, mortgage rates would be 1.20 percentage points higher, at 7.24%. Now that spreads are returning to normal, mortgage prices may remain lower for longer than in previous years.
Weekly home inventory data
The housing stock grew slightly from week to week. In a few weeks we are about to see the spring seasonal stock surge, which is very normal if it happens in late February or early March; last March is not a good story for inventory growth. However, I believe we need to grow within that time frame. The growth rate of inventories has slowed significantly since the price falls, but remains at multi-year highs to keep prices in check. We’ve gone from 33% year-over-year growth to just 8.24% last week.
- Weekly Inventory Change: (February 6 – February 13): Inventory increased from 687,697 Unpleasant 690,547
- Same week last year: (February 7 – February 14): Stock rose from 632,325 Unpleasant 637,984
New advertising data
Data on new listings saw a nice uptick last week. I think this is due to the snow data fading out of the data pool, with the data still being slightly negative year after year, which I also blame on the snowstorm; we were positive on most reports year after year before the snowstorm hit us. My hope is that new listing data will be between 80,000 and 100,000 per week during the seasonal peaks, as they were between 2013 and 2019. For context, during the housing bubble crash, new home additions ranged from 250,000 to 400,000 per week for several years.
Here you will find the new advertising data for the past two years:
- 2026: 54,324
- 2025: 56,558
Price reduction percentage
Typically, around a third of homes experience price reductions before they are sold, reflecting the dynamic nature of the housing market. As mortgage rates and inventories rise together, the percentage of price reductions increases. However, interest rates are near multi-year lows, so after a very long time we are now seeing negative year-over-year price reduction figures. This should not be a surprise as demand has picked up slightly and inventory growth has slowed. This time this week we are down almost 1% from last year.
Last week’s price reduction percentage:
Coming up next week: housing numbers, Fed speeches and inflation
We’ll have a series of housing reports this week, including current home sales, which I think will show the impact of the snow, as well as new home sales, home starts and builder confidence data. We will have more too Federal Reserve speeches and inflation data. It will be interesting to see if the 10-year yield will test last year’s lows and if it will hold up after last week’s sharp drop in yields. We are very close to the lower forecast for mortgage rates and 10-year rates, so this will be an interesting week in the bond market.
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