Cognizant Classic golf parlay picks: Top head-to-head matchup picks at PGA National feature Aaron Rai

Leg 1: Aaron Rai defeats Rico Hoey (-122)

Let’s first look at the Englishman Aaron Rai who comes out on top in this battle between thirty-year-olds.

Rai put in his best performance of the year so far with a T28 at the Genesis, where a final round 76 cost him a good placing, and now makes his debut at the Cognizant Classic.

Hoey hasn’t started well this year, with a T24 at the Phoenix Open, but otherwise he’s produced a missed cut, withdrawal and three finishes of T50 or worse, and he’s finished T56 and T25 here in the past.

Accuracy is key at PGA National and Rai is one of the most accurate drivers in the field with a strong approach game, two of Hoey’s main weaknesses.

With a win or draw of 61.6%, Rai’s fair odds would be -160which gives us a solid lead and highlights a clear misprice for Hoey, which is -108 but should be closer to +140 according to our model.

Leg 2: Will Zalatoris defeats Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen (-112)

Next we look at Will Zalatoris winning his match with Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, the best chance of the three matchups in this parlay.

Zalatoris has two starts this year with a T18 and a missed cut, while Neergaard-Petersen has a pair of Top 50 finishes.

When you look at the statistical overlay of these two golfers, Zalatoris has the edge in almost every category, especially when it matters, such as driving accuracy and strokes gained on approach, with a huge discrepancy in the score; Zalatoris ranks 8th on TOUR on Par 4s, while his opponent ranks 104th, with a similar gap in bogey avoidance.

Combine that analytical advantage with the model’s 63.5% chance of winning or drawing in a matchup, the books are almost even, and Zalatoris gets the clear advantage.

Leg 3: Shane Lowry def Nicolai Hojgaard (-128)

We wrap up this parlay with a clash between our model’s two best golfers in the tournament, giving the edge to our most likely winner of it all, Shane Lowry.

We explained why Lowry is a must bet for value in our Cognizant Classic Best Bets, and all of that reasoning applies here too.

He has an excellent course record here, making all eight cuts with three Top 5s and a T11 in his last four outings.

Hojgaard is no slouch either, but has less history on his side, with just two appearances at this event, a missed cut and T18 separated by three full years.

Both golfers have started well in a number of events this year with Top 10 and Top 25 finishes each, but have not yet competed in the same tournament.

Hojgaard has the edge in distance off the tee, but the accuracy is all in the hands of Lowry, who has the much more complete approach game.

This is the tightest of these three matchups, but a 57.6% for the Irish to win or draw gives us about fair oddswhile our model says that Hojgaard should be plus money even though he is at -104.

+520 Cognizant Classic Parlay Picks

To wrap up our parlay, we have these three matchups below, with our selected golfer projected to win over a 72-hole course, with odds of +520 on DraftKings Sportsbook:

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