According to the latest briefing shared by GreeksLive, expectations for a strong bullish breakout in Bitcoin (BTC ($87,969.00)) by the end of the year are quite low within the English-speaking investing community.
Adam, a macro researcher at the institute, argued in his assessment that market sentiment was sharply divided and the short-term outlook remained cautious.
According to Adam’s analysis, a strongly bearish segment within the community claims that BTC has undergone a structural change since the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) options went live on November 19, 2024. This view suggests that Bitcoin is failing to generate upside momentum during US trading hours and is performing weakly overall. The analysis highlights the potential for increased volatility around January 6, while noting that most investors are skeptical of a “major breakout” by the end of the year. On the daily term, the technical structure remains bearish.
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Another key point raised in the briefing was the criticism that the increasing financialization of Bitcoin is changing the nature of the cryptocurrency market. Adam stated that since the introduction of IBIT options, BTC has become one of the weakest performing assets globally, both in terms of absolute return and risk-adjusted return. He noted that during this period there was no increase of more than 15% in one month, but only about 10% in two months; and that predominantly downward movements were observed during US trading hours.
According to the analysis, a pattern is increasingly emerging in the markets: sharp declines in the first two hours after the opening of the US markets, followed by prolonged stagnation; and generally weak prices during the Asian session. The tendency of US investors to sell profits quickly reduces the attractiveness of cryptocurrency markets compared to traditional financial markets, which offer similar volatility but with FDIC protection and circuit breaker mechanisms.
GreeksLive’s assessment states that passive fund flows mainly support traditional markets, while passive selling pressure and peak liquidations are prominent on the BTC side. It is also said that the shift in custody preferences from direct BTC to packaged products such as IBIT raises long-term budgetary concerns regarding network security and proof-of-work (PoW) systems.
*This is not investment advice.
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