I don’t often have an opinion about the PGA TOUR. There are plenty of writers describing the TOUR in more detail than I can match.
In this case, however, I think the PGA TOUR’s new commissioner, Brian Rolapp, deserves coverage from all sides for his brilliant recovery shot from the PGAT-LIV sand trap.
It could be the shot that wins the game.
As golf fans are no doubt aware by now, Brooks Koepka has left LIV and will return to the PGA TOUR in 2026. That seemed unlikely at best a few months ago. PGAT officials had said there was no way back for players who jumped to the upstart league in violation of the agreements they made when they accepted a PGAT card.
For what it’s worth, I agreed with the PGAT position. It’s fine for people to move to a new workplace; it is also fine if the old employer does not take you back when you feel like working there again.
And yet Brooks is back.
What Rolapp did was take a full swing at a fried egg lay, clear the edge of the pot bunker and roll it into the hole.
I understand that some PGAT members and more than a few fans may be upset that Koepka is allowed to return, but I think this will be seen as the best path forward in the long run.
Under the Returning Members program, players who have won a Major of Players since 2022 can apply for reinstatement.
That’s the first brilliant part from Rolapp’s play. There are only four players who qualify: Koepka, Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau and Cam Smith.
If the cutoff was 2021, Phil Mickelson would be eligible. I think 2022 was chosen specifically to leave him out. It also rules out Dustin Johnson, but I think he can be considered acceptable collateral damage.
If we got those four back, LIV would be devastated. At that point, any world ranking points LIV could achieve would be significantly reduced, as it is partly based on field strength. Losing Koepka will be bad enough.
After those four, I can’t think of another player on LIV who would move the needle for the PGA TOUR. I’m actually not sure anyone would care about Cam Smith other than Australians and a few other loyalists (he finished 18th at LIV last year – not exactly setting the world on fire).
Two: upon his return, Koepka (and every other prodigal son) must play in fifteen tournaments, but he will not immediately be eligible for the signature $20 million events. To participate, Koepka would have to win a regular tour event or through another qualifier, such as finishing top ten in the FedEx Cup that is not yet eligible. He also cannot obtain a referee exemption.
The genius of this is that it practically forces this potential headliner to play in second-tier events. These smaller events would otherwise fall short in promoting great talent.
Three: While he helps the Tour, Koepka will be ineligible for the Player Equity Program for five years.
The PGAT says this could cost him $50 – $80 million dollars.
Koepka reportedly had a $100 million dollar contract with LIV and earned $46 million in prize money and bonuses.
There’s a distinct possibility that Koepka is simply breaking even on his LIV experiment. The comparison would start with $146 million earned, minus the $80 million in lost PGAT assets, taking into account lost sponsorship revenue and potential PGAT tournament revenue. Did playing LIV cost him his lead and one or two Majors? This must also be taken into account. That includes the potential lost revenue from this year’s highest-paying tournaments.
The loss of equity is a double whammy. Even though he (at least theoretically) adds to the PGAT’s value, Koepka won’t benefit from that value.
Koepka must also pay a $5 million fine (given to charity). That doesn’t sound like much, but I don’t remember ever hearing of such a high fine for professional sports.
One final point on this: Koepka is 35. By the time he’s eligible for the stock program, he’ll be 40 — near the end of most players’ careers.
Four: Koepka’s return does not deprive the current players of playing opportunities. Going into a tournament, Koepka will be an asset. If the tournament is 120, he will be 121. It is possible that if Koepka is added, another player or two will also have to be added to create an additional group.
This addresses my biggest original concern about the possible return of LIV players. I didn’t think it would be fair for a player who left because of a stroke of luck to encounter another player who stayed on TOUR. I would hate to be the lowest person on the seniority list at my school, who was left out when another teacher decided to return after leaving for a few years to work in another district (indeed, the seniority rules would not have allowed this).
If Koepka is still the old Brooks, he shouldn’t have a problem making enough to keep his card.
Five: The remaining four players have until February 2 to take advantage of the TOUR’s offer. Furthermore, according to Rolapp, there is no guarantee of a similar offer. I think that would be the case for DeChambeau and Rahm, but there could be more caveats.
The sixth and last The twist of this brilliant shot is that it forces LIV to make a long putt just to keep the match going for one more hole.
LIV’s main claim to legitimacy is that it has (had) a collection of former major championship winners. Koepka is one of only two to win a Major while a member of LIV. Others have a major (notably Mickelson), but giving LIV credit for that is like someone buying a patent and then claiming they’re the inventor.
Now that Koepka is gone, will the Saudis spend another few hundred million to hire another big winner? The Saudis are indeed pumping money out of the ground, but the whole purpose of their PIF is to make money as a hedge against a post-oil world. Reports indicate that PIF has lost as much as $1.1 billion to LIV.
If LIV doesn’t spend the big money, what is the alternative? My advice would be to go where the PGA TOUR (and the European Tour) is not, in terms of geography, calendar and focus.
By all accounts, LIV is loved in Australia. I bet they would also do well in Asia, especially Korea and China, where the American and European tours could face political winds. South America? Canada? In terms of the calendar, LIV could play in the effective PGAT off-season (the fall and first half of winter), which would make them the center of the golf world during those months.
In terms of focus, I have long thought that LIV should be the Mid-Pro league: guys who have made a name for themselves are no longer regularly competitive on the PGA TOUR against the young players, but they are too young for the senior tour. They could combine that with a feeder tour, bringing in young talent. No shame in that. Every major league team has a AAA affiliate that (presumably) makes money.
Or they can just fold. The Saudis have a history of withdrawing from ambitious projects.
I’m ambivalent about whether LIV will continue or not. I enjoyed attending their tournament in Michigan and thought it offered lessons for the PGA TOUR on how to run an event. I don’t follow it otherwise.
However, I think LIV will have to make its own move thanks to Rolapp’s play.
We’ll have to wait to see that step happen. I’m sure there is no intention to rename the Ironheads as the Korean Golf Club. (But it may point a way forward).
Meanwhile, a nice golf hit for Rolapp’s shot was well played.
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